2024 is set to become the hottest year ever recorded, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). For the first time, global average temperatures have surpassed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—a critical threshold long associated with severe climate impacts. The global average temperature from January to November 2024 was 1.6°C higher than levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
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“This year is effectively certain to be the warmest on record,” stated Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S. While a single year exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, it emphasizes the urgency for ambitious climate action.
Unprecedented Heat and Escalating Disasters
An extraordinary stretch of extreme heat defined 2024, affecting ecosystems and human societies worldwide. Countries across the globe faced climate-related disasters that were exacerbated by rapid warming. These included deadly flooding in Spain and Kenya, violent storms in the United States and the Philippines, and devastating droughts and wildfires in South America.
Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, highlighted the intensity of wildfires in Bolivia, the Amazon, and Canada, describing them as historically significant. These disasters not only caused widespread destruction but also contributed to heightened levels of air pollution.
Economic Toll of a Warming Planet
The economic impact of these climate-induced disasters has been staggering. The Swiss Re Institute, a global insurance research body, reported that economic losses from climate-related disasters reached $320 billion in 2024, a 6% increase from the previous year. Insured losses accounted for less than half of this figure, reflecting the vulnerability of poorer populations who cannot afford coverage.
Developing nations remain disproportionately affected, requiring an estimated $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to transition to renewable energy and adapt to climate challenges. However, commitments made at the November UN climate talks to raise $300 billion annually by 2035 have been criticized as insufficient.
Crossing the 1.5°C Threshold
The 1.5°C threshold, a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement, was identified as a critical limit to mitigate catastrophic climate impacts. Scientists warn that sustained warming beyond this level would significantly increase risks to ecosystems and human societies.
While this year’s breach of the threshold is alarming, it is calculated over decades rather than single years for Paris Agreement compliance. However, rising carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels suggest that long-term adherence to the limit is increasingly unlikely.
According to the UN, current climate policies are on track to result in a catastrophic 3.1°C of warming by the end of the century. To stay within the safer 1.5°C range, global emissions must fall by 45% by 2030—a target that remains elusive as fossil fuel usage continues to grow.
Urgency of Climate Action
The supercharged effects of climate change are already evident. Heatwaves of unprecedented intensity, more frequent and severe storms, and worsening floods are becoming the new norm. The impacts are compounded by urban sprawl, which places high-value assets in vulnerable areas.
Swiss Re emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of proactive adaptation measures such as dykes, dams, and floodgates, which are up to ten times cheaper than rebuilding after disasters. Yet, global funding remains insufficient to implement these solutions at scale.
Looking Ahead
As 2025 approaches, the Copernicus Climate Change Service predicts that global temperatures will remain near record levels for several months. Without decisive action, the world risks enduring even greater environmental, economic, and societal consequences.
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The findings from 2024 highlight the need for immediate and ambitious steps to reduce emissions, transition to renewable energy, and support vulnerable nations. While the challenges are daunting, the cost of inaction will be far greater. As Samantha Burgess aptly noted, “This does not mean the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever.”