The UK’s Met Office has forecasted that 2024 will likely become the warmest year on record, with global temperatures almost certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. This marks a significant milestone, as scientists consider the 1.5°C threshold critical to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.
The anticipated record-breaking heat of 2024 follows a year of unprecedented climate disasters worldwide. The previous high, recorded in 2023, saw global temperatures 1.45°C above pre-industrial averages. While 2024’s warming has been slightly amplified by the natural El Niño phenomenon, the primary driver remains the rise in greenhouse gas emissions from human activities like burning fossil fuels.
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Dr. Nick Dunstone of the Met Office emphasized that while temporarily surpassing 1.5°C does not breach the Paris Agreement, which focuses on long-term averages, it is nonetheless “a sobering milestone in climate history.”
2025: Third Warmest Year Expected
Looking ahead, 2025 is projected to rank among the top three warmest years on record, with global temperatures estimated to be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels. Despite transitioning from the warming influence of El Niño to the cooling effects of La Niña, the forecast predicts a central estimate of 1.41°C for 2025—significantly warmer than the 0.77°C recorded during the El Niño year of 2016, which was the warmest year at the time.
Professor Adam Scaife, who led the Met Office’s global forecast, noted that 2016 now “looks decidedly cool” in comparison to the projected heat of 2025. This highlights the accelerating impact of climate change, as annual global temperatures steadily climb due to persistent greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate Disasters and Global Warming
The record-breaking heat in 2024 highlights the devastating consequences of a warming planet. Climate-related disasters, from intensified storms to extreme heatwaves, have wreaked havoc on both rich and poor nations. Scientists warn that as global temperatures rise, such events will become more frequent and severe.
One key factor amplifying these disasters is the warming of ocean surfaces, which fuels stronger storms by releasing more water vapor and energy into the atmosphere. This was evident in the UK’s recent storm season, marked by flooding, power outages, and loss of life.
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The world’s governments pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, achieving this goal is becoming increasingly challenging. The Met Office’s 20-year average of global warming currently stands at 1.3°C, and the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C in 2024 serves as a stark warning of the urgent need for action.