Obesity and overweight rates are surging at an alarming pace worldwide, with a new study warning that over half of all adults and nearly a third of children and young people will be affected by 2050. Researchers describe this as a “monumental societal failure” in tackling one of the greatest public health crises of the century.
According to research published in The Lancet, more than 3.8 billion adults and 746 million children and adolescents will be overweight or obese by mid-century if no action is taken. This sharp rise follows a concerning trend—since 1990, the number of overweight or obese individuals has more than doubled, reaching 2.6 billion in 2021.
Read More: How do you get kids to eat vegetables?
Lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington called the global obesity epidemic a “profound tragedy,” emphasizing the urgent need for intervention.
Health Consequences and Economic Burden
Obesity significantly increases the risk of serious health conditions, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, and certain cancers. As the number of overweight individuals rises, health systems across the globe will struggle to cope with the growing burden of obesity-related diseases.
By 2050, a quarter of the world’s obese population will be over 65, exacerbating pressure on already fragile healthcare systems, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The World Obesity Atlas predicts that 79% of obese adults and 88% of obese children will be living in these nations by 2035. Worryingly, only 7% of countries have adequate healthcare systems in place to manage the crisis. “This is one of the biggest public health challenges we face,” said Simon Barquera, president of the World Obesity Federation.
Alarming Growth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
While obesity has long been a concern in high-income nations, its rapid acceleration in low- and middle-income countries is particularly concerning. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to see a 250% rise in overweight and obese populations, with numbers climbing to 522 million adults and 200 million children and adolescents by 2050.
In Nigeria alone, the number of overweight or obese adults is projected to more than triple, from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050, making it the fourth-largest affected population globally. Similar trends are being observed in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean, where young people are increasingly vulnerable to weight gain.
Role of Diet and Lifestyle
Poor diets high in processed foods, sugar, and unhealthy fats, coupled with sedentary lifestyles, are major drivers of the obesity crisis. However, researchers note that the underlying causes are complex, with social and economic disparities playing a role.
“Socially deprived groups have a consistent and unexplained tendency toward obesity,” said Thorkild Sorensen from the University of Copenhagen. Governments are urged to use country-specific estimates to identify at-risk populations and implement targeted interventions, including improving access to healthy foods and promoting physical activity.
Impact on Younger Generations
Perhaps the most worrying trend is the rising obesity rates among children and young people. Obesity in children aged 5 to 14 more than doubled between 1990 and 2021, and by 2050, one in three young people will be overweight or obese.
In high-income nations, Chile is expected to have the highest obesity rates among children, while the United States will see the highest levels among older teens and young adults. In Europe, Greece is projected to have the highest rates among boys and young men, while San Marino and Greenland will lead in female obesity rates.
Dr. Jessica Kerr from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute emphasized the importance of immediate action. “If we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” she said.
Need for Policy Action
Despite growing awareness, policy efforts to combat obesity remain insufficient. The World Obesity Federation advocates for a “whole-of-society” approach, including better food labeling, taxation on unhealthy products, and improvements in healthcare systems.
Read More: How Astronomy, Astrology, and Cosmology Settled into Separate …
Emerging weight-loss drugs like GLP-1 receptor agonists could help reduce obesity rates, but researchers caution that they are not a standalone solution. “We can’t just treat our way out of it. We can’t just prevent our way out of it. We have to do multiple things together,” said Johanna Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation.