Just a week ago, scientists classified asteroid 2024 YR4 as one of the most dangerous space rocks ever observed, with a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032. The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA had flagged the asteroid as a significant concern, briefly placing it at level three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—a rare event in planetary defense. Given its estimated size of 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet), an impact could have been devastating, potentially destroying an entire city.
Updated Calculations Rule Out Earth Collision
However, after months of detailed tracking, experts have now nearly eliminated the risk of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth. As of Tuesday, ESA has revised the asteroid’s impact probability to just 0.001%, and NASA now calculates the odds at an almost negligible 0.0017%. This means the asteroid will safely pass by the planet in 2032, and there is no foreseeable threat from it for at least the next century.
Read More: Scientists monitor Asteroid 2024 YR4 as impact odds remain …
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) chief Paul Chodas assured that there is no possibility of the risk increasing again. “That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure that it would happen,” he said.
Potential Impact on the Moon Still Under Watch
While Earth is in the clear, scientists are still monitoring a small chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon on December 22, 2032. NASA estimates the probability at 1.7%, though Chodas believes these odds will also decrease with further observations.
Lessons from a Planetary Defense Perspective
Despite the initial alarm, experts highlight that the early detection and monitoring of 2024 YR4 was a valuable test for planetary defense systems. The asteroid briefly held the record for the highest predicted impact probability ever observed, surpassing previous cases such as Apophis in 2004. Apophis once had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029 before further analysis ruled out any danger.
Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defense office, described the process of identifying, tracking, and ruling out a collision as “a very exciting and educational exercise.” He emphasized that while current tracking systems worked well, improvements are still needed. Upcoming telescopes such as the Vera Rubin Observatory, the Flyeye telescope, and Europe’s planned NEOMIR early warning mission will further enhance asteroid detection capabilities.
Read More: Asteroid Bennu reveals secrets of life’s origins
The asteroid is expected to disappear from view within the next two months as it moves away from Earth, but astronomers will continue to study it. The James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe 2024 YR4 next month to better determine its size and composition.