Britain’s future as a state was in plenty of doubt following the fall of France in June 1940 to the Wehrmacht’s troops. That June on the whole island of Britain, there were only 2 British divisions fully equipped and ready for fighting. The Royal Air Force was outnumbered by the Luftwaffe and, while the Royal Navy was close to full strength, the British admiralty was not confident their warships could prevent the Germans from landing military forces on British soil.
In mid-1940 Italy had somewhat tentatively entered the war on the Germans’ side while, in the Far East, Japan was on the rise and not friendly to the British. Though it would soon change there was no immediate prospect of substantial American aid arriving in Britain. The United States was not prepared to directly enter the conflict in 1940, and its politicians like Joseph Kennedy, the US ambassador to Britain since 1938, believed the Germans had gained an impregnable position by 1940. Kennedy was overlooking the inevitable future conflict between the Third Reich and the Soviet Union, of which there was no guarantee the Nazis would win.
By overcoming the French in the middle of 1940 the Germans could establish air and naval bases in northern and western France, a close distance from England. This provided more options for striking at the British, in the waters surrounding Britain, while enabling the Germans when they pleased to enter the nearby Atlantic with U-boats (submarines) and warships.
British Preparations and Diplomatic Efforts
From July 1940, the British hurriedly fortified their country against a Nazi amphibious invasion. They put in place gun batteries, mines, obstacles, and barriers on their coastlines, particularly in southern and eastern England. From mid-June to mid-August 1940, talks took place between British and German representatives with the apparent hope of attaining peace. The Germans thought it possible that politicians like Lloyd George and Lord Halifax would recognize the futility of continuing the war; that they could topple Winston Churchill and form a government prepared to negotiate a peace deal with Nazi Germany.
The previously mentioned peace discussions went nowhere between British and German officials. There is the possibility the British used those talks in order to distract the Germans, and so stall an invasion of Britain while they strengthened their coastal defenses and built up their forces. Time was ticking for the Germans if they were to conquer Britain. Had the Nazi hierarchy made prior preparations, amphibious landings in England could have been launched in July 1940 when the British were badly prepared to meet the threat.
German Strategic Challenges
The English Channel, a body of water that separates southern England from northern France, was always a daunting challenge for the Germans to overcome if they were to ship ground forces to England. Had the English Channel not existed, with land between France and Britain, the Wehrmacht would have defeated the British Army as the recent fighting in France had shown.
German admirals like Karl Dönitz were despondent about this. Dönitz believed that a fleet of 300 U-boats in 1939 would have been enough on its own to defeat Britain by 1941, a resource-poor island nation reliant on imports from sea. Years after the war Dönitz, an inmate in Spandau Prison, was still complaining about the German Navy’s inadequate U-boat fleet in 1939, as the former Nazi henchman Albert Speer wrote, himself also a prisoner at Spandau.
Alternative Strategies and Final Preparations
In the early 1940s there was, at least on paper, another option open for the Nazis to finish off Britain. The Wehrmacht could have advanced south through France into the territory of its ally Spain, from there take Gibraltar, then enter North Africa to capture Egypt and the Suez Canal, cut off India, and wipe out all British interests in the Middle East. General Franco of Spain was unwilling to be involved in such a grandiose scheme, which in any event would have stretched German resources to breaking point.
The Royal Air Force tried to bomb the above vessels but their warplanes suffered losses and failed to inflict enough damage. The Germans managed to accumulate enough vessels, however much a mixed bag they were, for landings in Britain to be attempted. The German Army, specifically some of its high command, was confident that a successful invasion of Britain could be achieved. The victory over France had created a sense of infallibility within the German Army, leading to a reckless overconfidence.
The Invasion Plan
The Germans expected to land 100,000 of their troops in the opening phase of the invasion between Dover, on the south-eastern English coast, and Lyme Bay, about 200 miles westward from Dover along the south coast of England. Ominously from a British viewpoint, the town of Dover is just 70 miles from London, and the enemy forces were to be strengthened with another 160,000 soldiers to eventually arrive in the following landings.
After a period of 6 weeks following the first landing, the entire German force in England was to amount to 23 divisions. They would be assisted by the Luftwaffe which was expected to gain aerial superiority over the English Channel and coastal areas, crucial for the German invasion to proceed.
Overall Objectives and Potential Outcomes
The 23 divisions earmarked to conquer Britain were to be part of 3 armies, under the overall command of Field Marshal Gerd von Rundstedt, one of the Wehrmacht’s most experienced officers. The German 16th Army would set sail from ports located between Rotterdam, in the southern Netherlands, and Boulogne, in northern France, and was to arrive between the towns of Hythe and Eastbourne in south-eastern England.
The German 9th Army was to depart from ports located between Boulogne and Le Havre, both in northern France, and was to land between the towns of Brighton and Worthing in southern England.
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The German 6th Army, often considered the Wehrmacht’s strongest fighting force, was to set sail from the Cherbourg peninsula in northern France and would enter an area between Portsmouth and Weymouth, the latter town in south-western England. The 6th Army might have been used partly also to bolster the positions held by the German 16th and 9th armies in southern England.
Conclusion: The Feasibility of the Invasion
In the first week of the invasion, the Germans were to establish a line about 80 miles wide between the towns of Canterbury and Arundel. The next objective was to advance further inland, and create another line stretching around 90 miles south-westward from Gravesend to Reigate to Portsmouth; with Gravesend and Reigate situated only 20 miles from London to the east and south.
On 10 July 1940, the Germans recommenced U-boat and air attacks on British merchant convoys in the English Channel. The plan for the Nazi invasion of Britain, titled Operation Sea Lion, was formally issued on 16 July 1940, and it stated that all preparations for the landings were to be completed by the next month, in mid-August. Due to further delays in preparations, at the end of July 1940 the invasion date was pushed back to 15 September. A further postponement resulted in a new invasion date of 21 September, because of requests made by the German Navy on 30 August. With the navy not satisfied on 11 September the invasion was postponed again to 24 September.
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By mid-September 1940 the soldiers that were to defend England had been hastily increased and consisted of 34 British divisions, some of which were not fully equipped. Yet 16 of these divisions, among them 3 armored divisions, would be sent to the beaches in order to meet the initial German assault force of 9 divisions along with airborne personnel. Now into the autumn, the British high command had developed a better understanding of where the Nazis wished to land.
Needing time to secure their positions on the English beaches and lacking resupply, while still without aerial superiority, the German invasion in all likelihood would have failed, had it gone ahead. The plan for Operation Sea Lion was akin to the Schlieffen Plan and the Ludendorff offensives of the First World War, and the later Operation Barbarossa. Each plan was too ambitious to succeed.
Shane Quinn is a historical analyst specializing in European history, with a focus on the period between 1870 and 1945