Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, which has a 1-in-83 chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. The space rock, estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters (196 feet) wide, has quickly gained attention from experts and space enthusiasts worldwide due to its unusually high probability of impact.
Initial Observations
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) project, funded by NASA. Further searches revealed that ATLAS had unknowingly imaged it two days prior. Observations from telescopes in Chile and the Catalina Sky Survey have allowed astronomers to track its trajectory, leading to the realization that the asteroid might pose a serious risk.
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NASA’s Center of Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) estimates that on December 22, 2032, the asteroid will make a very close approach to Earth, possibly coming within 66,000 miles (106,200 kilometers). However, orbital uncertainties suggest that a direct impact cannot yet be ruled out.
Increased Risk
Due to its impact probability, 2024 YR4 has been ranked at level 3 on the Torino scale, a system used to assess asteroid threats. This makes it only the second asteroid to ever reach this level, after 99942 Apophis, which was briefly considered a risk in 2004 before new observations ruled out an impact. A level 3 rating signifies that the asteroid’s approach warrants close monitoring, though it does not yet indicate a definite threat.
“This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever,” said David Rankin, an asteroid hunter from the Catalina Sky Survey. Despite this, he and other experts emphasize that people should not panic, as further observations are likely to refine the asteroid’s trajectory.
Possible Impact Locations
Current data suggests that if 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, the potential impact zone—known as the “risk corridor”—stretches from the Pacific Ocean near Mexico, across northern South America, over the Atlantic Ocean, and into central Africa. Countries such as Venezuela, Colombia, Ghana, and Nigeria could be within the risk zone, as well as northern India. However, given the uncertainty in the asteroid’s path, these estimations remain preliminary.
Potential Consequences of Impact
Should 2024 YR4 collide with Earth, the severity of the impact would depend on its composition and size. If the asteroid is made of a stony material, it could explode in the atmosphere, creating an “airburst” similar to the 1908 Tunguska event, which flattened 80 million trees across 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers) in Siberia. If it is composed of metal, it could survive atmospheric entry and create an impact crater similar to Arizona’s Meteor Crater, which measures ¾ mile wide.
Astronomers stress that understanding the asteroid’s composition is crucial for determining the potential damage. However, because 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth, obtaining radar observations—one of the best methods for size and composition analysis—is currently impossible.
Future Observations and Risk Assessment
Experts expect that by 2028, when the asteroid makes a less risky close approach (passing within about 5 million miles of Earth), astronomers will be able to gather more precise data on its orbit, composition, and potential impact risk.
In the meantime, scientists continue to search for past images of the asteroid that might refine its trajectory. Amateur astronomer Sam Deen recently searched through archival data and found that the asteroid did not appear in certain locations where it would have been if it were on a non-impacting path. His analysis suggests that the impact probability may actually be higher than current estimates, possibly between 3% and 6%.
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While the possibility of impact remains uncertain, astronomers are working tirelessly to refine their predictions. “As we get more and more observations of this asteroid, most likely, the noodle will begin to shrink,” said MIT asteroid expert Richard Binzel, referring to the long, uncertain path of the asteroid’s projected orbit.