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Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Imran Khan vs. the System: A Nation at Crossroads

The piece analyzes three potential paths for Imran Khan amid his imprisonment, compares his struggle to Pakistan’s historical political crises, and outlines steps to end military dominance in politics, urging a united political front for civilian supremacy.

Let us consider three scenarios confronted by Imran Khan (IK) today:

  1. It’s game over. System is about to submit unconditionally either before Jan 20th or soon thereafter.
  2. Nothing will happen in a hurry. IK should stay in jail for as long as it takes. In the meanwhile, keep making the moral, constitutional arguments within the country and around the world, until domestic and external pressure makes the system crumble.
  3. Get all opposition parties together including JUI F and run a massive campaign which grinds the system down to a crawl, if not to a halt and wait for it to crumble.

If the first scenario crystalizes, IK will find himself where Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was on December 20, 1971 when General Yahya; thanks to the prolonged mismanagement of East Pakistan by a predominantly West Pakistani civil-military bureaucracy, handed Bhutto the reins of a dismembered Pakistan and making him, our only Civilian Chief Martial Law Administrator.

Despite IK’s governance shortcomings as PM, by staying in extremely harsh conditions in the prison & remaining steadfast (unlike Nawaz who cut deals with General Musharraf and General Bajwa for fleeing to the comfort of Suroor Palace & Avenfield Apartments), IK has become as popular today, as Mujib was in East Pakistan in 1970 and is thus being treated by General Asim’s Army the very same way General Yahya’s Army treated Shiekh Mujib, who won all but two seats from East Pakistan to emerge as the sole spokesman of East Pakistanis and the single largest party in Pakistan’s first (and the only fair) general elections held in December 1970.


Parallels with Pakistan’s Troubled History

General Yahya rejected Mujib’s popular mandate by banning Awami League and unleashing unspeakable violence on Pakistani citizens through Army’s Operation Searchlight which culminated in the tragic dismemberment of the Country and the lasting humiliation of Army through the mass surrender of some 90,000 personnel.


Pakistan’s tragic history thus bears irrefutable evidence of the abject incapacity of our Colonial Army to learn from its mistakes. Much more than the Viceroy of British India, our Army Chief continues to decide the course of our politics through his iron grip on all tiers of government and government policy (both domestic and foreign), political parties, parliament, judiciary (both bar & the bench), media, clergy, civil society and academia as the omnipotent fountainhead of executive authority, immune from any domestic accountability since January 1951; creating and killing politicians & political parties at will by removing & installing Prime Ministers from Liaquat Ali Khan to Imran Khan, without allowing any one of them to complete his/her term. The Army Chief also considers it his divine right to abrogate or mutilate our constitution and our superior judiciary from as early as the Tamizuddin Case in 1954 to extracting at gunpoint, the 26th Amendment from his puppet parliament in 2024.


Read More: ICJ, UNHCR Condemn Pakistan’s 26th Amendment for Undermining Judiciary

The Role of International Pressure and Its Consequences

In this backdrop, an urgent & irresistible, albeit unlikely pressure from Trump 2.0 Administration, which leads to the Army Chief/Government dropping all 180 cases against IK and setting him instantly free would cause reputational damage to IK by lending significant circumstantial credence to opposition’s ludicrous allegations that IK is a Jewish/American stooge.

Read More: Former US Ambassador Asks: How Would Gen. Asim Justify the Imprisonment of Trump’s Friend, Imran Khan

Consequently, while IK has already outed and rightly rejected military’s rapprochement proposals, what he should do upon his release from jail, whether in the near future,or as a result of the second scenario is largely the same.

Before spelling out his “to do list”, let us first evaluate the third scenario of getting all opposition parties together including JUIF to run a massive campaign which, sooner or later brings the system down.

The System’s Allegiances to the Military

Nawaz Sharif, the product of a martial law regime and thrice PM of Pakistan has opted to destroy his own political career by owing his allegiance yet again to the Army Chief rather than politically competing with IK.

Zardari, the symbol of corruption in Pakistan has successfully destroyed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s PPP, a feat General Zia could not achieve by killing Bhutto during his eleven year-long martial law regime; in exchange for unfettered control of Sindh’s resources for twenty consecutive years, a full five year term of Prime Ministership and a second five year term as the President & Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. To his credit, Zardari has demolished Army’s narrative that politicians are inept, corrupt & unpatriotic, who must hence be removed from power every now and then (in fact, only when they stand up to the Army Chief).

Similarly, all other notable political parties ranging from the far right to the left; from Maulana Fazlur Rehman (MFR)’s JUIF, Jamat Islami, TLP to ANP, MQM, BNP Mengal have all cut deals with the Army from time to time, collecting loose change in return for lending unqualified support for consolidating Army’s hold on Pakistani politics.

IK and PTI being no exceptions, also owe a debt of gratitude to the Army for assisting IK become PM, which has helped him earn his political stature at the cost of his current ordeal. That said, PTI’s third term in KPK is largely due to Army’s inability to physically rig the elections in KPK because of KPK’s unique weapon culture and also as a reaction to Army’s unpopularity in KPK rather than PTI’s service delivery and governance achievements.

Imran Khan’s Path Ahead

As stated above, all other notable political players today have completely surrendered to the brute force and political machinations of the Army, which has thus emerged as the largest political party of Pakistan. IK on the other hand has risen as Army’s sole noteworthy political critic & adversary by popularising the fact that while a professional Army is essential to maintain our territorial integrity, Pakistan and her deeply politicised Army can no longer co-exist and that the Army’s pervasive control of our politics is the primary cause of our national plight.

Recent PTI efforts at building opposition alliances by making amends with MFR for broad basing IK’s narrative in general and to oppose the 26th amendment in particular have raised MFR’s stature but damaged PTI because of mixed signals and statements of PTI leadership, which appeared to sanctify the Bogus Parliament or its 26th Amendment; the last nail in the coffin of our superior judiciary. MFR’s claim that had it not been for his efforts, the amendment would have been far more draconian is illogical and beats common sense.

Had it not been for Trump’s victory, whether constrained by international forces, institutional interests or for personal reasons, Asim Munir would not show any regard for law or justice in his relentless efforts to banish IK and PTI forever. He remains indifferent to the damage caused to Army’s reputation by its use of brute force in killing unarmed civilian protesters at D-Chowk Islamabad on November 26th. Asim would have never authorised his Government to meaningfully engage in any effective talks that result in erosion of the Army’s power for respecting the mandate of the people. Recent convictions of civilians in military trials and IK’s likely conviction in £190 million Bahria Town/Al-Qadir Trust case further demonstrate failure & fragility of Pakistan Army as a self-correcting institution, incapable of holding its own Chief to account.

All things considered, IK no longer needs to criticise other politicians for increasing his own political capital. He should thus demonstrate statesmanship by taking the lead in unequivocally regretting his past decision to accept Army’s help (diguised as level playing field) in advancing his political career albeit in good faith. He should go a step further by exonerating Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, MFR and others of their political sins; attributing their current conduct more to their inability to combat Army’s involvement in politics than for their personal interests and self-preservation. He should thus invite all notable politicians to come together to end Army’s role in politics by fixing the civil military imbalance as under:

  1. Freeing all political prisoners
  2. Formation of a judicial commission headed by the senior most Judge of the Supreme Court to probe 26th November, 9th May & Model Town tragedies.
  3. Creating a Truth & Reconciliation Commission to document all major crimes and their perpetrators since August 14, 1947. Whether to demand posthumous convictions of major actors (such as Iskander Mirza, Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-haq and Pervez Musharraf for imposing martial law and indulging in politics) or not, can be separately evaluated.
  4. Reversing amendments to the Army Act to ensure that no Chief ever gets an extension
  5. Reversing 26th Amendment and bringing instead, a constitutional reform package that ensures independence of judiciary, creation of an independent prosecution branch/system which ensures that no bogus FIR is ever registered, and that no one is prosecuted for political reasons.
  6. Implementing Supreme Court Verdict in Asghar Khan case for ending Army’s role in politics by publicly disbanding the political wing of the ISI & MI, as well as political role of IB, FIA, FIU and/or any other intelligence agency by whatever name called.
  7. Elimination of the caretaker setup & empowering the election commission (as in India), bio-metric voting & automatic compilation/posting of results in a manner that no one can dispute or challenge the electoral process.
  8. Amendments to the Elections Act 2017 for holding intra-party elections on national infrastructure as above and provision of federal funding to Political parties on a transparent criterion (similar to UK, France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Australia, Canada, Brazil, etc) to ensure that Political Parties emerge as the strongest and most sacred institutions in Pakistan.

The author has held key positions in both the corporate sector and public policy domains in Pakistan. Sadaa-e-Malang is his adopted pen name.