For over sixty years, India and Pakistan have jointly managed the crucial waters of the Indus River system through the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960. Despite enduring multiple conflicts, the treaty has remained a foundational element in their bilateral relations, enabling shared access to this vital water resource.
However, recent tensions have placed this longstanding agreement under strain. Following a deadly attack in Pahalgam, located in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 tourists, India announced it would suspend the treaty.
Read more: Pakistan concerned over loss of tourists’ lives as 26 killed in India-held Kashmir attack, says FO
India’s Ministry of External Affairs Secretary, Vikram Misri, declared, “The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.”
What is the Indus Waters Treaty?
The IWT traces its origins to the aftermath of the 1947 Partition of British India, which led to the creation of India and Pakistan. Both nations, now collectively home to over 1.6 billion people, have historically depended on Himalayan river systems for irrigation and agriculture.
The partition divided the agriculturally rich Punjab province—previously served by an integrated British-built irrigation network—across the new border, necessitating a formal agreement to manage water sharing and avoid future conflict.
After nearly a decade of negotiations facilitated by the World Bank, the treaty was signed in September 1960 by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan. Under its terms, India received exclusive control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—while Pakistan was granted rights over the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Although India is required to allow the uninterrupted flow of the western rivers into Pakistan, it can develop limited hydroelectric projects under strict conditions.
These projects must adhere to “run-of-the-river” design principles, meaning they cannot significantly alter the natural water flow or storage, thus protecting Pakistan’s downstream rights.
Treaty Mechanism and Points of Contention
Disagreements under the treaty have often centered on Indian hydroelectric power projects, particularly the Kishenganga (330 MW, operational since 2018) and the Ratle (850 MW, under construction). Both are located on tributaries of rivers governed by the treaty and have drawn objections from Pakistan, which claims they violate technical provisions.
Although neither project is World Bank-funded, Pakistan argues that their design features may infringe upon treaty constraints intended to preserve natural flow and prevent undue water retention or diversion.
India, while operating within its rights to develop these projects, must comply with specific design limitations detailed in the treaty’s annexes. These conditions aim to prevent disruption of water flows to Pakistan, especially during dry seasons or critical irrigation periods.
Impact on Pakistan
The treaty gives India limited authority to build run-of-the-river hydro projects on the western rivers but allows Pakistan to object if designs threaten downstream flow. This is critical for Pakistan, which receives nearly 80% of its surface water from the Indus river system. Of the 168 million acre-feet of total water flow, India is allocated around 33 million acre-feet and currently utilizes over 90% of this share.
Pakistan’s dependency on these rivers is immense. The Indus basin supports nearly 68% of rural livelihoods and accounts for about 23% of the country’s agricultural water consumption. Any disruption could result in severe agricultural setbacks, food insecurity, and further economic instability—particularly as the country already faces fiscal challenges.
Adding to the concern is Pakistan’s limited storage capacity. The combined live storage of major reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla is just 14.4 million acre-feet—roughly 10% of its annual entitlement—making the country especially vulnerable to any fluctuation in river flow.
India’s Treaty Rights
Despite Pakistan’s heavy reliance on the Indus waters, the treaty also provides India with certain rights. These include irrigation for up to 1.34 million acres in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh—though only about 642,000 acres are currently irrigated. Additionally, India can store up to 3.6 million acre-feet of water from the western rivers, though it has yet to develop substantial storage infrastructure.
India is also permitted to build run-of-the-river dams, which, while not intended to permanently obstruct water flow, do allow for temporary control. This can provide a strategic advantage in times of diplomatic tension.
Tensions between the two countries have escalated significantly since India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status in August 2019. As trust continues to erode, many experts believe that revisiting the cooperative ethos that underpinned the original treaty may be the most constructive path forward.