The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long rule on December 8, 2024, sent shockwaves through the region and the international community. Assad’s forces crumbled in a matter of days against a lightning offensive spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group born from al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. HTS’s seizure of Damascus marked an end to the iron-fisted regime that crushed dissent with brutal crackdowns and plunged Syria into a devastating war.
Assad’s dramatic departure left behind a scarred nation. Over 500,000 Syrians were killed in the conflict, millions were displaced, and the economy lay in shambles. Assad’s loyalists vanished as HTS swept across the country, sparking celebrations in cities where his regime’s oppression had been the norm for over a decade. Crowds waved white banners in place of Assad’s flag, which had become a symbol of torture, corruption, and despair.
International Powers Scramble to Engage with Syria
For the first time since 2012, France raised its flag at its embassy in Damascus on December 17, signaling a seismic shift in Western policy toward Syria. Jean-Francois Guillaume, France’s special envoy, announced Paris would support the transitional government led by HTS, albeit cautiously. This symbolic move, alongside the European Union’s “constructive” discussions with Syria’s new leaders, highlights a broader trend: the international community is rapidly recalibrating its stance.
Germany, Italy, and Britain have followed suit, opening channels with HTS leadership. British officials met with HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, in a scene unimaginable a decade ago. Sharaa, dressed in a suit rather than military fatigues, positioned himself as a reformist leader, urging the West to lift sanctions that have strangled Syria’s economy.
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Yet skepticism remains. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that sanctions relief will hinge on HTS proving its commitment through “deeds, not words.” For Western nations, engagement with a group still labeled as “terrorist” represents a tightrope walk of pragmatism and principle.
HTS and the Shifting Political Landscape
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s rise from insurgency to Syria’s de facto rulers has stunned observers. Rooted in Islamist militancy, HTS has spent years shedding its extremist rhetoric, rebranding itself as a governance force capable of uniting Syria’s fractured society. Sharaa’s pledge to disband rebel factions and integrate fighters into a restructured defense ministry is seen as an attempt to stabilize the nation.
However, concerns persist over HTS’s Islamist origins. Minority groups fear persecution under their rule, despite Sharaa’s assurances of inclusivity. “Syria is for all Syrians,” he declared, framing HTS as a unifying force rather than an ideological regime. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a key broker in the region, echoed these sentiments, calling for an “inclusive government” in Damascus during discussions with Arab and European leaders.
Ankara’s influence over HTS cannot be understated. Turkey, which maintained deep ties to Syrian opposition factions throughout the civil war, positioned itself as a linchpin in shaping Syria’s future. Erdogan’s cautious rhetoric signals Ankara’s determination to avoid past missteps, such as those seen during the Arab Spring when power vacuums led to prolonged instability.
Economic Hopes and Refugee Returns Amid Skepticism
For ordinary Syrians, HTS’s victory brings cautious optimism. The Syrian pound has begun recovering against the dollar as foreign currencies flow back into markets for the first time in years. Streets once choked by regime checkpoints are now bustling with vendors and artisans repainting shop facades. Omar Bashur, a Damascus artisan, explained the significance of white paint replacing Assad’s flags: “White is the color of peace.”
However, economic recovery is far from guaranteed. HTS inherits a nation crippled by sanctions, corruption, and destruction. Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir called on Western powers to lift sanctions to enable the return of six million refugees scattered across the globe. The United Nations estimates one million Syrians could return by mid-2025, offering a glimmer of hope to families desperate to rebuild their lives.
Yet challenges loom. In war-ravaged areas like Yarmouk, survivors search for closure amid the ruins. Radwan Adwan, a Palestinian refugee, returned to rebuild his father’s grave after years of forced exile. “Without the fall of the regime, this would have been impossible,” he said tearfully.
A Fragile Transition
Syria stands at a crossroads. Assad’s ouster marks the end of a bloody era, but the road to peace and stability is fraught with uncertainty. HTS’s attempt to position itself as a legitimate governing force will face relentless scrutiny. Western nations, cautiously optimistic, remain wary of endorsing a group still shadowed by its extremist past.
The future of Syria will depend on whether HTS can bridge ideological divides, protect minorities, and rebuild an economy decimated by war. As the white flags of peace flutter across Damascus, Syrians dare to hope—but they do so with an awareness of how fragile their newfound freedom remains.