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Monday, November 18, 2024

Is a no-deal Brexit on the horizon?

Amidst conflicting reports on Boris Johnson’s intentions, the British government rushed to deny reports by The Guardian that the ideal scenario that PM is aiming for, is a no-deal withdrawal from the European Union.

News Desk |

On Monday, The Guardian published that it has been reported by multiple European Union diplomats that Britain’s Chief envoy to Brussels, spoke in a meeting that a no-deal exit was PM Johnson’s “central scenario.”

Amidst maturing evidence that the Johnson government intends to crash out of the EU on the 31st of October, it is expected that Britain will try to reset negotiations once it has left the European Union and try to get a better deal.

The British representatives at the meeting were reportedly intransigent to no end, and clearly lacked a willingness to come to any sort of terms with the Union diplomats. David Frost, the government’s chief Europe adviser, reportedly sought discussions on negotiations being reset after the UK leaves the Union on 31st October.

A senior European diplomat was quoted as saying “It was clear UK does not have another plan. No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.” Seeing as these comments came at the end of his meeting with David Frost, Britain’s prospects for a clean separation on 31st October look increasingly unlikely.

The prime minister seems to be trying to slip no deal through, slip past parliament and slip past the British people.

These reports took the British media by storm as government sources began to refute these claims and insisted that the government was still willing to negotiate a deal prior to the “do or die” promised Brexit date of 31st October.

The government clarified that in the absence of the “undemocratic backstop” that would prevent a true hard border in Ireland and the UK in a customs union, a deal was possible. While the EU has always maintained that the backstop is not up for negotiation, the Johnson regime demands that it should be.

However, as the EU diplomats revealed that during the meeting the British representatives had failed to propose any solutions to the issue of the Irish backstop, it makes observers wonder just how sincere this negotiating spirit of the UK is. Even if the UK’s diplomats were completely unwilling to give way on this point, some diplomatic effort would have gone a long way in avoiding a total impasse.

An EU diplomat commented “the message has gone loud and clear to capitals, it was useful to hear it from the horse’s mouth. Reality is sinking in.”

However, several signs in Westminster made the prospect of a no-deal Brexit more real than most of Britain wants it to be. On Monday, Dominic Cummings, senior advisor to the Prime Minister, instructed top officials across the country to prepare the country for a no-deal Brexit.

Such an extreme course of action is not palatable to many conservative MPs, let alone the opposition parties. It is the one course of action that parliament was largely united against at the height of the polarization caused by Brexit and is now seeming like an increasingly possible scenario.

Read more: Newly elected UK PM Boris Johnson’s government under threat

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn commented, “We will do everything to stop no deal, including a no-confidence vote at the appropriate very early to do it. The prime minister seems to be trying to slip no deal through, slip past parliament and slip past the British people. I’m sorry, it’s not on, it’s not acceptable. We will do everything we can to block it.”

Many Conservative MPs promised to rebel against their own party and join hands with the opposition for the sole purpose of avoiding a no-deal Brexit. Whether or not Johnson’s team is able to negotiate a deal after crashing out of the Union, it’s likely that the uncertainty caused by the whole saga will be enough to upset the region economically.

Boris Johnson’s Government Hanging on by a Thread

In a special election in July in the Brecon and Radnorshire region of Wales, Liberal Democratic Candidate Jane Dodds won a substantial victory over Conservative candidate Chris Davies who previously held the MP seat, the conservatives noted a stark decline of 10% in the share of votes they received as compared to the previous election in the constituency. This by-election loss whittles down the Johnson government’s working majority to a single seat.

The Prime Minister does not need the official approval of the Parliament to execute Brexit, but it would be in gross violation of constitutional convention if the executive decides to ignore a resolution by the legislature of the time. Seeing how polarised the parliament already is on the question of Brexit, it would be an unwise and fruitless avenue for Johnson to pursue. His working majority is already slim and calls for a second referendum to reinforce or revoke the “Brexit mandate” are now commonly sounding through parliament and civil society.