Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Tehran has intensified speculation about Moscow’s role in ongoing diplomatic maneuvering between the United States and Iran. According to reports, Lavrov conveyed a US proposal for reopening nuclear negotiations during his recent meetings with Iranian officials. The offer, reportedly discussed between Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saudi Arabia, includes strict conditions on Iran’s ballistic missile and drone program. If preliminary expert-level talks prove successful, negotiations could advance to a high-level agreement between Presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged receiving the proposal but stated that Tehran will not negotiate under pressure. He outlined three conditions for talks: the suspension of American sanctions during negotiations, a halt to Israeli threats against Iranian nuclear facilities, and the absence of preconditions before discussions commence. Lavrov reportedly advised Iranian officials that direct engagement with the US would yield more results than relying on the European Troika—France, Germany, and Britain—who have been unable to revive the nuclear deal.
US Message or Russian Self-Interest?
Iranian media and analysts remain divided on Lavrov’s true agenda. While some believe he carried an official US message, others suggest he was merely assessing Washington’s stance and relaying Tehran’s position back to the White House. A commentary in Iran’s official news agency, IRNA, noted that Lavrov might have been warning Iran against altering its nuclear doctrine or withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a move some Iranian hardliners have advocated.
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Foreign policy analyst Abdolreza Faraji-Rad expressed doubts that Lavrov was acting as a direct intermediary for the US. He suggested that if the US had sent a message, it likely involved offering a temporary reduction in Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions—reimposed by executive order on January 20—in exchange for Iran agreeing to direct nuclear talks. Others believe Lavrov’s visit was linked to broader geopolitical shifts, including US-Russia discussions over Ukraine.
Beyond Lavrov’s visit, Tehran has hosted several high-profile diplomatic meetings in recent weeks, including talks with the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who met with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These engagements have fueled speculation that Iran is at the center of backchannel diplomacy involving Washington and its regional allies.
Fears of Iran Becoming a Russian Pawn
Amid these developments, some Iranian analysts worry that Tehran is being used as a bargaining chip in Moscow’s negotiations with the Trump administration. Khabar Online, a news outlet close to former conservative Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, compared Lavrov’s meeting with Rubio to the Yalta Conference of 1945, where world powers redrew geopolitical boundaries. “Iran is also in danger,” the article warned, suggesting that Moscow could sacrifice Tehran’s interests for concessions on Ukraine.
Former chairman of Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, echoed these concerns, stating, “I am concerned that Iran may be sacrificed for peace [in Ukraine].” Similar fears were expressed by Glasgow-based Iranian political analyst Reza Taghizadeh, who speculated on X (formerly Twitter) that Lavrov’s real objective was to persuade Iran to dismantle its nuclear program and withdraw support from the “axis of resistance” in exchange for preventing an Israeli attack and securing continued oil exports.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma
Iran now faces a difficult choice: engage in direct negotiations with Washington or risk further economic and military isolation. While Tehran has long relied on Moscow as a strategic partner, concerns are growing that Russia’s interests in Ukraine may take precedence over its alliance with Iran. Lavrov’s reported encouragement to negotiate directly with the US suggests that Moscow is unwilling to jeopardize its own diplomatic positioning for Tehran’s sake.
With Trump and Putin expected to hold talks in the coming months, Iran’s role in broader geopolitical negotiations remains uncertain. If Lavrov’s visit signals a shift in Moscow’s priorities, Tehran may find itself with fewer options and greater pressure to compromise on its nuclear ambitions.