The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon appears to be largely holding, despite accusations of violations from both sides of the border.
US President Joe Biden said the deal that took effect early Wednesday morning – raising hopes of a lasting respite after a 13-month border conflict that spiraled into an all-out war in September – “is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
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Since then, thousands of displaced Lebanese people have begun returning to their homes in the south, despite both Lebanon’s army and the Israeli military warning residents not to return home yet.
Will the truce hold?
The ceasefire agreement heralds much-needed respite for Lebanese civilians, hundreds of whom have been killed in Israeli airstrikes, as well as for Israelis, millions of whom have taken to shelters amid Hezbollah’s daily barrage of rocket fire.
Thousands of Lebanese have begun to travel back to their homes in the south, despite warnings from the Israeli and Lebanese governments not to return immediately.
Residents in the southern Lebanese town of Qlayaa were seen cheering and throwing rice in the air – a gesture of celebration – as a Lebanese regiment arrived in the town on Wednesday evening. Under the truce, the Lebanese military will ramp up its presence in the south to help preserve the peace.
But there are questions about how long the truce may hold. Israel insists that it will take military action in response to any breach of the agreement. That could reignite the conflict, putting US-backed diplomatic efforts in jeopardy.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has agreed to withdraw its forces north of the Litani river, some 40 kilometers from the Israel-Lebanon frontier at its furthest point. It made that concession in 2006 but violated it, building a vast underground infrastructure in an area where its members are part of the social fabric. Israel also breached the 2006 agreement by conducting near daily overflights in Lebanon.
On Thursday, however, both countries in the agreement accused the other of violating it.
In a statement, Israel’s military that said that it had thwarted “terrorist activity” in “a facility used by Hezbollah to store mid-range rockets in southern Lebanon.”
Meanwhile, the Lebanese army said that Israel had breached the terms of the ceasefire agreement “several times” since it went into effect, through “aerial infiltrations and the targeting of Lebanese territory with various weapons.”
The violations of the 2006 truce allowed Hezbollah to strengthen its forces tremendously, while Israel gathered intelligence on the militant group that would prove to be a game-changer in the 2024 war.
Still, the truce held for nearly two decades, the longest period of calm on that political fault-line since the 1960s.
How Hezbollah and Israel got here
Hezbollah first began to fire at Israeli-held territory a day after Hamas’ October 7 surprise attack in Israel, which killed around 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages, triggering Israel’s ongoing devastating offensive in Gaza. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah repeatedly vowed to continue firing rockets at Israel until it ceased its assault in Gaza.
In an overnight meeting that began on September 16, Israel’s war cabinet expanded its stated war goals to include the return of residents displaced in the north of the country, as Hezbollah’s daily rocket fire on northern Israel has displaced more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes.
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Hours later, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, killing scores and wounding hundreds. That was followed by an attack on the group’s walkie-talkies the next day. On September 23, Israel launched an all-out offensive on Shia-majority areas across the country where Hezbollah wields significant influence, killing over 500 people in the deadliest day for Lebanon since its civil war that ended in 1990.
On September 27, Israel killed Hezbollah’s long-time leader Nasrallah in a massive attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut, upending the truce talks. A series of subsequent attacks decimated the group’s top brass, sending the organization even deeper underground.