The risk of all-out war between Israel and Lebanon is extremely high, according to the Russian ambassador in Beirut. Alexander Rudakov warned of a grim scenario in which Israeli troops could invade Lebanon, leading to mass casualties and destruction on a scale comparable to that seen in Gaza.
Since Monday, Israel has been conducting a large-scale air campaign against Hezbollah, dubbed “Northern Arrows,” claiming to have destroyed hundreds of “terrorist targets.” Lebanese authorities have said the strikes have killed nearly 700 people, including dozens of women and children.
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The latest escalation has expanded the decades-old conflict beyond its “traditional” boundaries, Rudakov told RT in a written interview on Wednesday.
“Until recently, the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel operated under unwritten ‘rules,’ similar to an ‘eye for an eye’ formula, where one side’s attack provoked a conditionally proportionate response from the other. However, this structure appears to have collapsed in recent days,” Rudakov said.
Israel has not ruled out a potential ground operation. Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi informed troops on the northern border that this week’s airstrikes were designed to “prepare the ground for your possible entry and continue degrading Hezbollah.”
In the event of a full-scale war, the Russian embassy would follow established protocols, the ambassador said, while stressing that evacuation measures are a last resort.
“In this grim scenario, there may be an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, mass shelling of cities, and even more casualties,” he warned, noting that Lebanon is at risk of “becoming what Gaza has become.”
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Israel’s war in Gaza, launched in response to a deadly Hamas raid last October, has claimed over 41,000 lives, including nearly 16,500 children, according to Palestinian health authorities. Hezbollah has supported the Palestinian cause with sporadic missile launches against Israeli military installations, triggering tit-for-tat strikes that have escalated over the past year. Israeli authorities insist that the current operation in Lebanon aims to neutralize any further threats to its population.
However, Rudakov criticized Israel’s claim of exclusively targeting Hezbollah, stating that the indiscriminate nature of the attacks harms the entire Lebanese population. He emphasized that despite being branded a terrorist organization by Israel, Hezbollah remains a legitimate part of the Lebanese state and its political life.
While the Israeli bombardment has induced anxiety and panic, Rudakov noted that Lebanese society has united to support those affected by the conflict, with Christians and Muslims providing assistance to one another.
The ambassador stressed the need for an international response to stabilize the Middle East, starting with an immediate ceasefire, followed by negotiations. He did not rule out a potential Russian role in this process, as well as future efforts to restore Palestine and Lebanon.