Order of Battle, in a kinetic war, is the lineup of opposing forces before the battles are joined. For this discussion, I shall expand this term to include the war of nerves that is going on between the government and the opposition. The political, social, and institutional forces participating in this war can be broadly categorized as the combaters, beneficiaries, and elusive drummers.
We all know that the present situation in Pakistan is characterized by enemies on the borders, an economy on the brink of meltdown, palace intrigues, a pandemic that has paralyzed life, compromised national institutions, and a scattered and disorganized group desperately fighting a rearguard action against the external and internal foes.
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The combaters in this conflict are the ruling and opposition parties
A few political dynasties are ruling the roost. These dynasties control the political parties where there are no internal elections and an inner circle makes all the important appointments. The parties are run like fiefs and the electorate is hoodwinked through false promises and catchy slogans.
Looking back, one is amazed at the resemblance between what happened during the 1950s, the 1990s, and what is now happening during the first quarter of the 21st Century. There is one difference though. Whereas, between August 1947 and October 1958, there were seven prime ministers in Pakistan, the game of musical chairs during the 1990s revolved between two political parties only. However, the tumultuous decade of the 1990s had its origin in the 71 War.
Starting in the aftermath of the 71 War, successive Pakistani governments, through cronyism, destroyed the heavy industry. After depleting the country of its industrial assets, these governments encouraged the emergence of a few cartels which control the entire economy. Presently, the economy is being held hostage to sugar, fertilizer, and textile barons. A large number of them are politicians and retired bureaucrats. This brings to the fore the beneficiaries of the present political system.
Who are the beneficiaries? They are the shopkeepers, a generic term used here to include the entire spectrum of the business class, from the small outlet owners in the bazaar, to the large businesses and the industrialists. This is the class that was pampered during the rule of the “Businessman-President”, as Zardari euphemistically liked to call himself and the Sharif family. The shopkeeper class is angry with the present government because, thanks largely to FATF, Pakistan’s undocumented economy is under severe scrutiny.
It is not because FATF has any love lost for Pakistan, but due to the money laundering facilitated by the undocumented economy – money laundering that was used for terror financing. Ironically, IK’s anti-corruption rhetoric and FATF’s screw tightening have joined hands in Pakistan. Unable to do anything against FATF, the business community’s wrath has fallen on the sitting government. The shopkeepers are not the only beneficiaries of the largesse from the previous governments. The media, movers, and shakers of the small swing parties, the ECP, and the lawyers’ community, for one reason or another, also nurse grudges against the present regime.
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Lastly, who are the invisible drummers?
These are the foreign powers and the establishment. The inclination of the Pakistani rulers towards the inclusion of foreign powers for addressing Pakistan’s domestic issues and regional conflicts can be attributed to their lack of confidence and, more importantly, as a ploy to drag their feet in the resolution of these very issues. This is because they want to keep the pot boiling as it facilitates self-perpetuation. Towards this end, they allow external forces to play an exaggerated role in Pakistan’s domestic politics.
This mental slavery of Pakistani rulers is exemplified by Iskander Mirza’s assessment of one of his prime ministers ( Ch. Muhammad Ali) which he conveyed to the US ambassador Hildreth and which the ambassador sent to Washington in a telegram in February 1956.
Talking about the ‘establishment’ – a euphemism used for the Army, what is the background of the Army’s involvement in civil affairs? During the Cold War era, Pakistan was the only country in the so-called “Free World” where the political government had the serving army chief (General Muhammad Ayub Khan) double as the country’s defence minister. Behind the Iron Curtain, Marshall Grechko of the Soviet Union held this honour. The point here is, the civil governments involved the army in politics and then cursed it when it went out of their control. This pattern was refined during the decade spanning the period between the end of the First Kashmir War and the imposition of martial law in 1958. These invisible drummers, depending upon the situation, play on both sides of the wicket.
Saleem Akhtar Malik is a Pakistan Army veteran who writes on national and international affairs, defense, military history, and military technology. He Tweets at @saleemakhtar53. The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.