Pakistan denies that it’s arming Kiev and insists that its military shipments to European countries contain strict clauses prohibiting the transfer of these wares to third parties, yet the growing emergence of compelling visual evidence from the battlefield contradicts this claim. Observers should therefore take for granted that these reports about their clandestine defense cooperation are true, including the latest ones alleging that Pakistan will soon transfer rocket launchers and tanks to Ukraine.
While it initially seemed that the growing arms trade between these two was primarily driven by the pecuniary interests of Pakistan’s fascist post-modern coup regime, which has become so desperate to receive an IMF bailout in recent months that it’ll do practically anything, there might be more to it. The recent escalation of that country’s crisis following state-initiated clashes outside Imran Khan’s residence, talk about banning PTI, and the Interior Minister’s latest death threat against him shape this conclusion.
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Understanding the matter better
These three interconnected events very strongly suggest that Pakistan’s US-imported government will cling to power at all costs instead of holding free and fair early elections like the opposition demands. The ruling clique wants to wait until this fall’s scheduled ones since that’ll give them enough time to more effectively defraud the vote, yet growing grassroots pressure upon them might lead to the authorities taking drastic action before then out of fear that the failure to do so could lead to their fall.
Whether it’s prompted by more state-initiated clashes, the banning of PTI, and/or the Interior Minister making good on his latest death threat against Imran, there’s an increasingly high chance that the fascist post-modern regime will resort to a formal military coup on the pretext of “restoring order”. There’s no way that they’d do this without first feeling confident that they’ve secured American approval otherwise their elite members would risk being sanctioned by the West, which would directly affect their interests.
The US would ideally prefer for its proxies to successfully crush the opposition without having to take that fateful step, especially since it could result in lots of bloodsheds that would embarrass the Biden Administration, which was responsible for installing that fascist post-modern regime in the first place. Nevertheless, if that scenario is the only way to salvage this declining unipolar hegemon’s regional geostrategic project, then they’re willing to support it but only if its proxies first do them a major favor.
It’s unrealistic to expect them to cut off their decades-long strategic ties with China, hence why they declined to participate in this week’s second “Summit for Democracy” out of fear of offending the People’s Republic, but much easier to get them to decisively turn against Russia in a tangible way. Their mutually beneficial rapprochement over the past half-decade is still in its incipient stages and has yet to result in much of anything significant on the ground like pioneering new trade corridors.
The only issue of substance that could be sacrificed on the alter of this Faustian bargain with the US over arming Kyiv against Russia in exchange for securing Washington’s support for a formal military coup is their game-changing energy deal that Islamabad has dillydallied on implementing to Moscow’s chagrin. If it successfully enters into force, then Russia would become Pakistan’s second-largest oil supplier behind Saudi Arabia, which could also help avert a worse economic-financial crisis in that country too.
Moscow’s interests in pursuing this deal are apolitical and driven by mutual economic benefit as well as its desire to prevent its partner’s potential collapse in the scenario that its aforementioned crisis worsens should it be unable to receive reliable imports of discounted oil in the coming future. That said, the fascist post-modern coup’s growing unfriendliness towards Russia as proven by its clandestine arming of Kiev at its Western patrons’ behest might cause the Kremlin to reconsider.
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It’s important in this context to mention Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev’s visit to Delhi this week as part of an SCO event, where he held a one-on-one meeting with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and even with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Last month, Doval visited Moscow for a multilateral meeting on Afghanistan that Pakistan decided to skip, during which time he met with President Putin. These privileged meetings prove the deep trust between those two.
The reputable Economic Times reported that Patrushev and Doval discussed the “growing Ukraine-Pakistan defense axis”, among other issues. While it’s unclear whether this reported subject also figured into his talks with Prime Minister Modi, observers can’t preclude the possibility that the Indian leader could have confirmed whatever information his National Security Advisor earlier shared with Patrushev regarding Pakistan’s arming of Kiev and possibly passed along a related message to President Putin.
Nobody should doubt that India has the world’s most reliable intelligence about Pakistan so it naturally follows that it would share that which directly impacts its Russian strategic partner’s urgent national security interests, particularly that concerning the Pakistani-Ukrainian arms trade. While it’s too early to predict how Moscow will react to whatever evidence Delhi presumably shared with it, it’s implausible to imagine that Russia isn’t better aware of the facts about this issue after Patrushev’s latest trip to Delhi.
Pakistan’s double-dealing vis-à-vis Russia with respect to officially remaining interested in implementing their deliberately delayed game-changing energy deal while simultaneously arming its enemies in Kiev can’t be explained by pecuniary interests since the aforesaid deal would alleviate financial pressure. Upon becoming more familiar with all the facts after Patrushev was briefed by Doval and Prime Minister Modi, Russia will likely conclude that ulterior motives are at play behind Pakistan’s unfriendly move.
The US-led West’s GoldenBillion is losing NATO’s self-declared “race of logistics” with Russia as proven by Zelensky’s recent admission that Ukraine has already run out of ammo, thus necessitating that de facto New Cold War bloc obtaining military-technical equipment from their proxies abroad like Pakistan. This is of the highest importance for them nowadays otherwise Russia might soon make a decisive breakthrough across the Line of Contact (LOC) that could potentially force Kiev’s capitulation.
Read more: US-Russia conflict would be ‘radically different’ from war in Ukraine: Envoy
Accordingly, it therefore makes perfect sense that America would make its tacit approval of a formal military coup in Pakistan and associated assurances of continued economic-financial support in that scenario conditional on the fascist post-modern coup regime scaling up their armed aid to Kiev. This explains the latest reports about the impending shipment of rocket launchers and tanks, with it being possible that an even wider array of wares might soon be shipped there too if the US demands.
The way forward
No other interpretation of Pakistan’s double-dealing vis-à-vis Russia accounts for why Islamabad would unilaterally risk its game-changing energy deal with Moscow for the reliable import of discounted oil, which has a better chance of staving off its impending financial collapse than the carrot of an IMF deal. Its US-imported rulers must have been promised the second-mentioned in parallel with bilateral aid if they join in NATO’s “race of logistics”, with this being assured even if a formal military coup occurs.
Disbursing IMF aid prior to Kiev receiving as much military aid from Pakistan as possible could lead to the US’ proxies curtailing the scale of this assistance in order to ensure that Russia doesn’t decide to delay the implementation on their energy deal on whatever pretext due to this reason. They want to have their cake and eat it too, which in this context refers to getting IMF and US aid in parallel with reliably importing discounted oil from Russia even if they decide to carry out a conventional military coup.
The problem is that these proxies are being masterfully manipulated by their Western masters, who know how desperate they are for financial aid as well as how fearful they are of having their interests in the West sanctioned if they go through with a conventional military coup without American approval. That’s why they’re making the IMF deal conditional on them continuing to arm Kiev, not to mention their promises of related bilateral assistance if they go through with a traditional military takeover.
All of this bodes negatively for domestic stability and relations with Russia since the opposition should know that the fascist post-modern coup will resort to the most extreme means necessary to retain power while Moscow realizes that there’s no hope that Islamabad will stop arming Kiev. Everything is therefore moving in a destabilizing direction that’s leading to the former “Zipper of Eurasia” mutating into the “Faultline of Eurasia”, which risks dividing and ruling Eurasia to the Golden Billion’s benefit.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst, radio host, and regular contributor to several online outlets. He specializes in Russian affairs and geopolitics, specifically the US strategy in Eurasia. The article has been republished and the views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.