Recent on-the-ground assessments regarding the popularity of different political leaders and parties indicate that Imran Khan and the PTI remain widely popular nationwide. However, there is a noticeable shift in sentiment in Punjab.
Informed sources suggest that the significant popularity gap between PTI and PMLN in Punjab is narrowing in favor of the latter. A few months ago, the PTI enjoyed a 15% lead in popularity, which has now decreased to around 5% in the province.
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While the nationwide popularity gap between the two major political parties still favors PTI considerably, PMLN has made improvements in Punjab, posing a competitive challenge to PTI in the upcoming general elections in the province.
Referring to the latest survey, sources reveal that PTI’s current nationwide popularity is higher than it was in 2018, during the last general election. However, PMLN’s popularity is lower than its standing in 2018.
It is believed that PML-N’s decline in popularity in Punjab after April 2022, its traditional stronghold, has seen some recovery in recent months, particularly following Nawaz Sharif’s return from self-exile.
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The next five weeks leading up to the February 8 general elections are considered crucial for both political parties and voters. As the election campaigns intensify, it is anticipated that voter trends will also evolve. Surveys and assessments closer to the polling day are deemed more relevant for predicting election outcomes.
A Gallup survey conducted in June-July last year showed that 38% of respondents strongly favored PTI, 16% favored PMLN, 10% favored PPP, 15% favored TLP, 9% favored JI, and 6% favored MQMP.
Regarding politicians, the positive approval rating in the same survey revealed that Imran Khan had the highest approval at 60%, followed by Saad Rizvi and Pervaiz Elahi at 38% each, Shah Mehmood Qureshi at 37%, Nawaz Sharif at 36%, Shehbaz Sharif at 35%, Maryam Nawaz at 30%, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi at 28%, among others.
In Punjab, the positive approval rating of Imran Khan was 58%, Saad Rizvi 49%, Pervaiz Elahi 49%, Shah Mehmood Qureshi 43%, Shehbaz Sharif 43%, Nawaz Sharif 41%, Maryam Nawaz 37%, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi 33%, with Bilawal Bhutto not assessed in the survey.