Since the USA has warned that Russia is 70 percent ready to invade and could overrun Kiev in a few days, debates and concerns have been triggered among analysts, political pundits and experts about the prevalent situation. However, Russia has flouted any claim to invade Ukraine and told that its maneuvers are just for its vital security interest and blamed NATO for undermining regional security.
But Ukraine is not on one page; on the first hand, it turns down any risk of invasion. On the other hand, it is preparing civilians for invasion. Here questions are if Russia does not plan to invade, why has it massed such a high number of soldiers on the Ukrainian border? Why USA and NATO are taking invasion too seriously if Ukraine turns down the possibility of an invasion? Is it really a tragedy in making? What will be its consequences?
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Understanding the actual matter
Before answering these questions, let’s go through the history to extrapolate the causes of this tinderbox in a better way.
Historically, the Russia-Ukrainian crisis is not novel, but it traces back 2013-14. When after independence, Ukraine set apart its Russian legacy and forged compact ties with the west. And, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejected an association agreement with the European in favor of closer ties with Russia, which, as a result, had embarked protests and he was removed from power in 2014. In response, as some belief, Moscow had annexed Ukraine’s the Crimean Peninsula and burdened separatist rebellions for it who broke out in Ukraine’s east.
Then, the blame game started. Ukraine and the West blamed Russia for sending its troops and weapons to support the rebels, Moscow defied these claims. Instead, it chastised the US and its NATO allies for weapons and joint drills with Ukraine, which she believed will patronize Ukraine to fight and its regional security will be destabilized.
Coming to the recent situation, simply answering the questions, Russia is afraid of Ukraine’s appetency to join NATO, which Moscow claims is a redline and concerned about the set up of NATO members near its border, which NATO members, as it assumes, will set military training centers that ultimately will give them a foothold in the region and will be a looming danger for Russia.
Read more: Understanding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the prism of history
What happened next?
To evade this, Russia, in December, had sent a security demand document to the US which was seeking guarantees for halting NATO measures of a weapon system that threatens Moscow in close vicinity to its territory. But Russian demands were nixed by the US and NATO. Consequently, as Russia concerned about its security interest, it deemed it necessary to place this humongous number of soldiers on the border, but from the USA and NATO it sounds like an imminent tragedy knocking at the door of Ukraine- US intelligence has even predicted the number of causalities if Russia invades.
To assist Ukraine, Pentagon has put 8,500 US troops on standby for an Eastern deployment. To add this, Biden has commanded to deploy additional US troops to Poland, Romania, and Germany to substantiate America’s commitment to NATO’s eastern side amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine, since Poland borders both Russia and Ukraine, and Romania just borders Ukraine. Also, hundreds more infantry troops of the 82nd Airborne Division are expected to arrive at the Rzeszow Jasionka Airport, which is 56 miles away from Poland’s border with Ukraine. Besides, NATO is sending ships and jets. Since Ukraine is still not a member of NATO, the US and NATO soldiers cannot enter Ukraine to fight on their behalf.
Apart from them, Germany on its own plans to send a field medical facility but reprobated supplying arms, even after the Ukraine embassy’s request with a list pertaining to missile defense system, tools for electronic warfare, night vision goggles, digital radios, radar stations and military ambulances.
Besides their assistance, Ukraine has started drills with civilians to train them for any possible invasion. In the contrast, Olesksiy Reznokov, Minister of Defence of Ukraine, verbalized that the most realistic scenario could be an effort to destabilize Ukraine internally because the Kremlin dreams that they will be warmly welcomed on the streets of Kyiv, Odessa, Dnipro or Lviv. But the reality differs. Actually, this will not happen in full-scale aggression. And, it is no longer possible to seize administrative buildings, take advantage of the pro-soviet population like in 2014, so Ukrainians need to be ready for it and fill all gaps.
Read more: Russia to launch fake attack video to invade Ukraine, says Pentagon
What is the hope for the future?
In response, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that such maneuvers only added to an already tense atmosphere and the US is escalating tensions. Russia is watching such maneuvers with concerns. Also, it is constantly urging American partners to stop escalating tensions on the European continent and accuses US and NATO of toiling to contain Russia.
Moreover, there are various other allegations on Moscow that it is set to run a major nuclear weapon exercise in the coming weeks as a caution to NATO and deter it to intervene in the event of Putin invading Ukraine. To add, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO General Secretary, told that Russia has already deployed thousands of troops including Spetsnez Special forces, along with Iskander missiles that can be tipp ed with nukes, fighter jets and S-400 anti-aircraft system. Apart, NATO has alerted that Russia is messing with nuclear-capable missiles along with 30,000 troops in Belarus.
Furthermore, some analysts believe Moscow could move on to Ukraine to claim a quick, decisive victory and increase its power in future talks about NATO’s expansion and spheres of influence. However, some contrast in opinion and claim that NATO allies, exclusively US, are reluctant to expand their military footprints in the region and further jeopardize their relationship with Moscow.
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Afterward, China sided with Russia in opposing further expansion by NATO and both called on NATO to abandon its ideological approach of Cold War.
After understanding the entire situation, one can come to know and can simply answer the question of the seriousness of the US and NATO to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that it is containing Russia more than assisting Ukraine to expand their military foothold, because the US and Russia are too old antagonists, who toil to contain each other or damage each other indirectly or directly, if we further go through the suggested sanctions by US and NATO, if Russia invades, as they claim, which include hitting Russia financially by cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system; banning Russian gas pipeline in Europe, which accounts a robust revenue for Russia; and imposing export controls, potentially cutting Moscow off from the high tech that helps warplanes and passenger jets fly and powers smartphones, one can conclude that helping Ukraine can be a side purpose of the US and NATO but to contain Russia is a priority, using Ukraine as a tool for garnering its geopolitical goals.
In last, war is not a solution to any conflict instead it fuels crisis. To resolve the issue, both countries should come to talks so that without any devastation conflict is settled and any tragedy, which is in making, should be desisted.
The writer is a freelance columnist based in Karachi. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space