Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, that has a small but notable chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. Measuring between 130 to 300 feet in diameter, the space rock has been assigned a 1.6% probability of impact, making it the only known near-Earth object (NEO) with odds above 1%. While the chance of a strike remains low, the global scientific community is closely monitoring the asteroid’s trajectory.
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The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. It was later reported to the Minor Planet Center, the leading authority for tracking new asteroids and comets. Soon after, it appeared on NASA’s Sentry Impact Risk Table, prompting further investigation.
Impact Probability and Torino Scale Rating
When first observed, 2024 YR4 had an estimated 1.3% chance of impact, but as of late January 2025, that probability increased slightly to 1.6%. Despite the increase, astronomers stress that additional observations could soon rule out any threat.
The asteroid is currently ranked a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which ranges from 0 (no threat) to 10 (a catastrophic impact). This rating signifies an asteroid that warrants attention but is unlikely to cause a global disaster. The last asteroid to receive a comparable rating was Apophis in 2004, which initially had a 2.7% chance of hitting Earth in 2029 before being ruled safe.
Potential Consequences of an Impact
While 2024 YR4 is not large enough to cause an extinction-level event, it could still inflict severe localized damage. If it were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, it could explode in an airburst similar to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, which injured 1,500 people and shattered thousands of windows. That meteor, about half the size of 2024 YR4, released an estimated 500 kilotons of energy—roughly 30 times the power of the Hiroshima atomic bomb.
If 2024 YR4 impacts Earth, its energy release could reach 8 to 10 megatons, producing a blast wave spanning several miles. However, scientists note that much of the potential impact zone lies over oceans, reducing the likelihood of a catastrophic land strike.
Challenges in Tracking the Asteroid
Astronomers have a limited window to refine calculations before the asteroid becomes too faint to observe. By mid-April 2025, telescopes will no longer be able to track it, and the next opportunity for study won’t come until 2028. Until then, researchers are racing to gather as much data as possible to determine whether the impact probability will drop to zero.
The asteroid’s trajectory is being closely monitored by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN). ESA’s Very Large Telescope in Chile is also set to conduct high-resolution observations before the asteroid fades from view.
Global Response and Planetary Defense
If the risk persists, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) could advise the United Nations on potential mitigation efforts, such as a spacecraft deflection mission. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office has previously demonstrated asteroid deflection through its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022.
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For now, astronomers remain cautiously optimistic. “We take this seriously, but it’s important to keep perspective,” says Kelly Fast of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office. “There’s still a very low probability it will impact Earth.”