The world is mired in the pandemic, but the Machiavellian realpolitik should remain alive, and the Sino-Taiwan tussle is just an example. The itinerary of China to surmount Taiwan has to come true, sooner or later, war is ultimate.
The intensity must threaten us. The longevity should the world consider. And the damage it will do to the international order leaving certain questions for the future generation to answer must make the real policymakers anxious.
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China and Taiwan are in tussle from the very inception when Chiang Kai Shek declared a self-ruled territory and the world prompted that as a defective state- Taiwan. Taiwan is a so-called democratic state, which has been nourished under the bivouac of American interests to procure it. China claims the island is part of the mainland.
Besides American presence in the region, China has militarized the South China Sea threatening the other stakeholders in the region. For China, the South China Sea and Taiwan are non-negotiable concerns. To procure them, it will go to any extent.
Read more: China says US biggest threat to peace in South China Sea
Will China soon become a major power?
Recent debate is started after some real facts of Chinese military exercise in the South China Sea and the concerns of admiral Philip Davidson, who is leading the US INDOPACOM. Davidson said that there is a menace that China will invade Taiwan in the next five to six years.
Read more: Taiwan in danger of Chinese invasion by 2027, warns top US commander
Both regional, as well as systematic factors, are in favor of China. Though the war is ultimate, the reasons for its occurrence sooner are more justified. He added that China is ambitious of getting the US aside of its way to rule the world till 2050.
The argument comes from two policies of China till 2035 and 2049 to present a politico-economic order and to make China the world’s greater power, respectively. In 2049, China will celebrate its hundred years of communist rule.
Kishore Mehbubani argues in his book, Has China Won? Till 2049 China will be a major power and would have achieved its real position in the international arena getting the US aside.
Read more: Has normalization with US increased China’s power?
However, to prove these arguments true, China is on its way. It has conducted military exercises in the South China Sea for which the US is feeling threatened.
Davidson also wanted America to put more naval presence in the region to procure Guam. But the questions arise here that whether China is trying to invade Taiwan? Will America come, militarily, to protect Taiwan? How much the world is to wait for the war?
Read more: History of discord: The US, Taiwan and China
Factors favoring China
Looking at all the aspects the world must understand that China is ambitious to invade Taiwan now. Taiwan would never be negotiated, but now time is on China’s side. Certain factors favor China.
Taiwan’s defense capabilities are weaker. On the other side, the recent Chinese military exercise has proved that if China wants, it can surround the whole island leaving no way to run for the Taiwanese troops.
Read more: Taiwan claims Chinese jets invaded defense zone in 2020
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ruled out any possibility of Taiwan’s independence and has claimed to use force if needed. Besides the regional dynamics, America is also not in a position to come to Taiwan’s aid.
America has tried to resuscitate the Quad and promulgated to establish a free and open Indo-Pacific. But the truth is, America is in no position in the region to stop China against Taiwan. However, some sanctions will be put as a global sympathizer, but these will also be counterproductive.
Read more: US warns of more China sanctions over Hong Kong moves
There are two concepts in nations’ stability: Internal and external balancing. America is internally as well as externally unstable for now. Perhaps, Joe Biden will prefer to procure American legitimacy, not to push it in another war of others.
Time on China’s side?
Taiwan has said that it will fight till the end day, but these days would not make a month if coalesced. Taiwan is dependent upon America and the global hegemon is feeling tired now and wants to take some rest.
If we see the sequence of Chinese aggression from the Galwan valley crisis with India, economic sanctions against Australia, the territorial issue with Japan and the Philippines, to this Taiwan issue, China has gained momentum. And it’s difficult to stop the aggressors after such maneuvers.
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So, the time is in China’s favor. All aspects support China, either America’s debilitation, Taiwan’s military instability, the pandemic, or the momentum China has gained.
Though the criticism will come, so will the sanctions, China is in a position to bear with it before the world gets stable to counter it militarily.
Read more: China’s military must be prepared to “act at any second”: President Xi
The author is a Junior Research Associate at the Maritime Study Forum and sub-editor of Strategic Times magazine. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.