The recent IT outage caused by a buggy update from CrowdStrike has resulted in widespread flight cancellations, disrupting air travel around the world. While this is causing inconvenience for travelers, it may have an unexpected positive effect on the climate. According to scientist David Travis, who has conducted research on the impact of aviation on weather, the clearer skies and possibly lower temperatures resulting from the reduction in flights could be observed this evening. This highlights the connection between aviation and climate and how technology, such as software updates, can have ripple effects.
When planes fly at high altitudes, they create contrails, which are streaks of water vapor and pollution that resemble cirrus clouds. These contrails have a warming effect on the Earth, contributing to global warming by about 1% to 2%. Breakthrough Energy, an organization founded by Bill Gates, has recognized this issue and has partnered with ForeFlight, an aviation app startup acquired by Boeing, to recommend flight paths that minimize contrail formation. Google has also collaborated with Breakthrough Energy to predict conditions that lead to more contrails. American Airlines tested their models and saw a 54% reduction in contrails.
Our understanding of contrails’ climate impacts largely comes from a study conducted after the 9/11 tragedy. During the three days when commercial air travel was halted over the contiguous United States, scientists like Travis had a unique opportunity to observe the absence of contrails. This led to the collection of atmospheric data that provided insights into what atmospheric and climatic conditions were like before the jet age. The absence of contrails during this period resulted in slightly warmer days and cooler nights.
Since then, researchers have gained a deeper understanding of contrails and their impact on climate. With more data available, scientists can now identify areas where contrails are likely to persist and create cloud cover. This information is being used to inform initiatives like the partnership between Breakthrough Energy and ForeFlight.
While the flight cancellations caused by the CrowdStrike bug may not reach the scale of those following 9/11, they are significant enough to potentially have some climate effects. The reduction in high clouds due to fewer flights could lead to a slight increase in the temperature range between day and night. However, the extent of these effects will depend on the duration of the IT outage.