Skepticism Surrounding Tesla’s Full Self-Driving System
Recent incidents involving Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system have raised concerns about the company’s ability to deploy a fleet of autonomous vehicles. Technology analyst William Stein, who has test-driven Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system multiple times, reported that the vehicles made unsafe and illegal maneuvers. These incidents, along with a fatal crash in April, have drawn the attention of federal regulators who have been investigating Tesla’s automated driving systems for over two years. Skeptics doubt that Tesla’s system will ever be able to operate safely on a widespread scale.
Elon Musk’s Ambitious Predictions
Elon Musk has made ambitious predictions about Full Self-Driving, claiming that it could surpass human drivers in safety by the end of this year or next year. Tesla is scheduled to unveil a vehicle specifically designed to be a robotaxi in less than two months. However, for Tesla to put robotaxis on the road, the company must demonstrate that the system can drive more safely than humans and meet national standards for vehicle safety.
The Controversial Data Released by Tesla
Tesla has released data showing miles driven per crash, but only for its less-sophisticated Autopilot system. Safety experts have criticized the validity of this data, arguing that it does not consider situations where human drivers had to take over to avoid collisions. Despite the concerns raised, Full Self-Driving is currently being used on public roads by approximately 500,000 Tesla owners, who have paid $8,000 or more for the optional system.
Tesla’s Cautionary Statements and User Monitoring
Tesla has cautioned that cars equipped with Full Self-Driving cannot drive themselves and that drivers must be ready to intervene if necessary. The company monitors each driver’s behavior and suspends their ability to use Full Self-Driving if they fail to properly monitor the system. Recently, Tesla has started referring to the system as “Full Self-Driving” (Supervised).
Discrepancies between Musk’s Claims and Reality
Elon Musk’s past predictions for autonomous driving have proven overly optimistic, and critics doubt that Tesla’s system can work across the U.S. as promised. Michael Brooks, executive director of the Center for Auto Safety, remarked that Musk’s predictions are not realistic and that autonomous vehicles are still far from deployment on a large scale.
Test-Driving the Tesla Model 3
During a recent test drive, technology analyst William Stein experienced the Full Self-Driving system in a Tesla Model 3. Although the car felt smooth and more human-like than past versions, Stein reported that it made a left turn from a through lane while running a red light. While the car drove down the middle of a parkway, Stein had to intervene. Stein concluded that the latest version of Full Self-Driving does not “solve autonomy” nor approach robotaxi capabilities.
Experts Warn about Tesla’s Vision-Only Approach
Experts have long warned that Tesla’s system, which relies on cameras and computers, may not be able to accurately detect objects in all circumstances. Poor visibility conditions such as bad weather and darkness can limit the capabilities of vision-only systems. Other autonomous vehicle companies combine cameras with radar and laser sensors to overcome these limitations. Despite the potential of vision-only systems, they are not yet reliable enough for autonomous driving without human supervision.
Challenges with Artificial Intelligence and Real-World Situations
Autonomous vehicles that solely rely on artificial intelligence are still many years away from being able to handle all real-world situations. Machine learning, which powers these systems, lacks common sense and is limited to the examples it has learned from. This makes AI-prone to crashing when encountering situations it hasn’t been specifically taught about.
Concerns Over Safety and Fatal Crashes
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system has faced criticism over safety concerns, particularly following a fatal crash in Snohomish County, Washington. The driver, who was using Full Self-Driving while looking at their phone, rear-ended a motorcyclist, resulting in the motorcyclist’s death. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is evaluating information from Tesla and law enforcement officials regarding this crash.
Future of Full Self-Driving and Tesla’s Identity
As Tesla’s electric vehicle sales have declined, Elon Musk has emphasized that the company should be viewed more as a robotics and artificial intelligence business than a car company. While Musk remains confident in Tesla’s ability to solve vehicle autonomy, skepticism remains. Investors are advised to evaluate for themselves whether Full Self-Driving truly works as an artificial intelligence project generating current revenue and being used in the real world.
