NASA’s upcoming decision regarding the return of two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Sunita Williams, will have significant implications for the space industry as a whole. The decision will determine whether the astronauts will return to Earth on Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft or SpaceX’s Dragon capsule.
The backstory revolves around Boeing’s recent Starliner mission, which aimed to demonstrate the capsule’s ability to transport astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS). However, during the final phase of its approach to the station, the spacecraft encountered technical issues, including thruster failures and helium leaks in the propulsion system. While engineers managed to bring some thrusters back online, NASA and Boeing have been conducting a thorough investigation into the root causes of these problems.
NASA’s main concern is ensuring a successful de-orbit burn, which requires the propulsion system to function flawlessly. The organization has acknowledged internal disagreements regarding the best course of action moving forward. Boeing, on the other hand, has publicly expressed confidence in the safety of Starliner and the thoroughness of the testing campaign.
Saturday’s decision is highly anticipated and will put an end to the ongoing debate. If NASA determines that Starliner is not safe enough to fly home, it will undock from the ISS empty, and the astronauts will return aboard SpaceX’s Dragon capsule. This scenario would also cause a delay in the launch of the SpaceX Crew-9 mission, as Williams and Wilmore would use that vehicle to return to Earth in February 2025.
Alternatively, if Starliner is deemed unfit for the return journey, NASA may have to make adjustments to the Crew-9 manifest, potentially bumping two astronauts to accommodate Williams and Wilmore. Another option under consideration is for one Starliner astronaut to return with Crew-8 and another with Crew-9. However, this would be the first time a SpaceX Dragon capsule carries five crew members simultaneously.
Unlike Starliner, Dragon has already proven its reliability to NASA. It has become a critical mode of transportation for astronauts, especially considering the limitations imposed by global politics, which make the use of Russia’s Soyuz capsule and facilities impossible. Dragon successfully completed its crewed certification mission in 2020 and has since conducted numerous crewed missions for NASA, as well as private human spaceflight missions. Removing Starliner from the equation would further increase the demand for Dragon.
NASA’s leadership, including Administrator Bill Nelson, will hold an agency-level review known as a Flight Readiness Review on Saturday. Following the review, they will hold a press conference to announce the decision. This decision holds significant implications for both NASA and Boeing. Boeing has invested over $1.5 billion in the Starliner program, and the outcome of this test mission could determine the future of its development. NASA has also paid Boeing $4.2 billion over the years for the spacecraft’s development, with the intention of having two commercial astronaut transportation providers. If one provider is discontinued, it could lead to challenging budget discussions.
In conclusion, NASA’s decision on Saturday will mark a crucial moment in privately developed spaceflight and public-private partnerships. The outcome will shape the future of the space industry and have lasting effects on the commercialization of space travel.