What went wrong?
After Dieselgate, the EU decided to replace the outdated New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) laboratory fuel economy tests with a new format. This new test, called the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), was implemented in 2017. The WLTP test was designed to be more comprehensive, with a longer duration, greater distance, higher average speeds, and increased acceleration. It was believed that the WLTP test was based on real driving profiles. However, new technology installed in cars since 2021 revealed that the test significantly overestimated real-world fuel economy.
To address this issue, the EU mandated the installation of on-board fuel consumption monitoring devices (OBFCMs) in vehicles sold in member states. These devices would monitor the real-world CO2 emissions of vehicles and compare them to the official WLTP data. The first results of this monitoring have raised doubts about the EU’s fleet CO2 targets.
What has happened?
Recent reports from the European Commission and the European Court of Auditors have revealed that real-world fuel consumption data does not align with the official laboratory calculated figures. The initial estimates for cars registered in 2022 show that petrol cars’ fuel economy is overestimated by 23.7%, while diesel cars’ fuel economy is overestimated by 18.1%. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) fare better, with average CO2 emissions 23% lower than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. However, it was discovered that PHEVs were not being charged as frequently as estimated by the WLTP regime.
These findings have led to renewed scrutiny of larger-engined models, SUVs, luxury cars, underperforming mainstream ICE vehicles, and PHEVs by European authorities. The European Court of Auditors recommends that the EU adopts a new approach to CO2 targets, focusing on a minimum share of zero-emission vehicles rather than fleet average targets.
What happens now?
The European Commission’s report acknowledged the need for further data but expressed concern about heavy SUVs and luxury vehicles that deviate even further from the WLTP results. On the other hand, the European Court of Auditors took a more radical stance, calling for a complete overhaul of emissions legislation by 2026. They proposed targets based on a minimum share of zero-emission vehicles and a real-world emissions cap at the manufacturer level.
This demand could potentially impact the sale of nonelectric cars, particularly larger-engined vehicles, SUVs, and luxury cars. The Court of Auditors may have observed that buyers are opting for higher-spec versions of ICE cars, which are heavier and consume more fuel.
In the UK, although no longer directly affected by EU CO2 fleet average laws, British car makers’ offerings will still be under scrutiny as 53% of cars made in the UK are exported to the EU market. The car industry in Europe is bracing itself for another significant change.