The recent discussions on Threads about an exodus from X to Meta’s Threads have sparked curiosity and speculation among users. Many have reported seeing an influx of new users and friends leaving X for Threads, with some even deactivating their X accounts. Has there truly been a massive shift in users from X to Threads, or is it just a perception fueled by social media chatter?
Threads, Meta’s version of a Twitter-like social network, has been steadily growing since its global debut in July 2023. In April 2024, it reached 150 million monthly active users, and earlier this month, it crossed a new milestone of 200 million monthly active users. This growth demonstrates the platform’s popularity and appeal to users looking for a text-focused social network with a reduced emphasis on politics.
On Threads, users have been actively discussing the so-called X exodus, sharing their experiences and observations. Some have described it as a “tsunami” and a “watershed” moment. The exodus is said to be a response to Elon Musk’s recent decision to wade into U.K. politics, which drew criticism for resharing fake news and making comments that suggested civil war in the country was inevitable. These actions may have been the final straw for some users who decided to switch from X to Threads.
However, when examining the data to determine the actual size of the exodus, there is surprisingly little evidence to support the claim. Multiple sources, including app intelligence provider Sensor Tower and website traffic provider Similarweb, indicate that there have been minimal changes in Threads’ active users, app downloads, and website traffic. In fact, X has even reported slight growth in some cases.
Sensor Tower estimated that X’s average daily active users worldwide grew by 2% from July to August 2024, while Threads’ global daily active users remained largely unchanged. Both platforms saw unchanged global app installs in August compared to July. In the U.S., X and Threads experienced a 2% and 3% growth in daily active users, respectively. X’s U.S. average daily app downloads in August were down by 13% compared to July, while Threads saw a 14% increase. However, these figures do not explain a U.K.-fueled exodus.
Similarweb’s analysis also found no significant changes in user engagement between X and Threads. Both platforms exhibited normal fluctuations in engagement across web and mobile apps. X.com’s website traffic even grew by 1.4% week-over-week, while Threads’ traffic declined by 1.5%. It’s worth noting that Similarweb may not have captured trends from the past couple of days.
App intelligence provider Appfigures also found no evidence of an X exodus. Their data comparison between last Friday and today showed no significant change or upward movement. These third-party estimates may lag behind an actual shift in user engagement, but it’s also possible that Threads’ algorithm highlighted “quitting Twitter/X” posts in the app’s For You feed, creating the perception of a larger shift.
Furthermore, it’s plausible that some users who had already set up an account on Threads and downloaded the app decided to return to it after some time away, contributing to the exodus narrative. These movements would not be reflected in app install data.
Meta has not shared any recent metrics but has pointed to the 200 million monthly active users mentioned during the company’s recent earnings report. While Threads may be a popular alternative for former Twitter users, it’s not the only app vying for their attention. X also faces competition from decentralized networks like Mastodon and Nostr, as well as startups such as Bluesky, Spoutible, and Spill.
In conclusion, while the talk of an X exodus is prevalent on Threads, the data does not yet reflect a significant shift in users from X to Threads. It’s possible that the perception of a mass exodus is fueled by discussions on Threads and the platform’s algorithm highlighting quitting posts. The competition for former Twitter users’ attention remains strong, with various alternatives available. Only time will tell if there will be a true exodus from X to Threads or other platforms.