Tariffs clash, winds howl
Empires bleed, markets tremble
Reckoning unfolds.
The cherry blossoms of Washington are long gone, but the air in April 2025 carries a different kind of fragility – a whiff of economic gunpowder. Donald Trump, barely three months into his second term, has unsheathed his Liberation Tariffs, a blade he wields with the subtlety of a sledgehammer. The Economist/YouGov poll from April 5-8 paints a grim picture: 51% of Americans disapprove of his job performance, a net approval of -8, down 14 points since January. His handling of the economy fares worse, with a net approval of -10, and on inflation, a damning -19. The American people, it seems, are sharpening their own katanas.
Trump’s tariffs (145% on Chinese goods, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and a 90-day pause on others at 10%) are less a strategy than a tantrum. The Chinese, predictably, have retaliated, striking back with tariffs on US imports raised to 125%. Xi Jinping, in a meeting with Spain’s Pedro Sánchez as part of a broader diplomatic offensive, called for the EU to join China against Trump’s ‘bullying,’ warning that ‘there are no winners in a tariff war’, a truth rooted not in diplomacy, but in Beijing’s higher threshold for pain. A century of historical traumas. From the 100 Years of Humiliation to the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution has forged a chi ku resilience the US consumer, hooked on cheap goods, cannot match. The Guardian reports that China’s commerce ministry sees no market for US goods at current tariff levels, signaling a readiness to ‘fight to the end.’ This isn’t a negotiation; it’s a siege, with Beijing’s fortress unyielding to Trump’s tantrum-fueled charge.
The American people are the first casualties. The YouGov poll reveals 80% expect price hikes – 47% predict a lot, 33% a little. Only 4% think prices will drop. Meanwhile, 55% believe tariffs will hurt their financial well-being, and 53% see damage to the US economy. Goldman Sachs pegs the recession odds at 45%, and Yale researchers note that US import duties are at their highest in over a century. The S&P 500, down 15% from its February peak, is a bleeding wound. Japan’s Nikkei has fallen nearly 5%, and Hong Kong stocks are on track for their worst week since 2008. This is not the “art of the deal.” This is the art of self-harm.
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Trump’s base, the MAGA faithful, still cheer, with net approval of the tariffs among Republicans at +57, rising to +74 among self-identified MAGA types. But even here, cracks appear. Among Trump’s 2024 voters, favorable views of him have slipped from 91% to 85%, and his net approval on the economy among them has dropped from +75 to +66. The broader electorate is less forgiving: 52% disapprove of the tariffs, with a net approval of -16. Democrats (-79) and Independents (-29) are particularly scathing. The tariffs are a litmus test of Trump’s economic machismo, and he’s failing it.
The global fallout is equally stark. Emmanuel Macron calls the 90-day tariff pause “fragile,” a 90-day sentence of uncertainty for businesses. The EU has paused its counter-tariffs, but Canada and Mexico remain under 25% duties tied to fentanyl-related demands. Vietnam and Taiwan are scrambling to negotiate, the former cracking down on Chinese goods transshipped through its ports, the latter offering zero tariffs as a bargaining chip. Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba has dispatched a task force to Washington. Everyone is hedging, but no one is safe. The YouGov poll finds 56% of Americans expect retaliation from other countries, and 40% foresee a trade war. If it comes, 42% think the US will be hurt more than the rest of the world, against 30% who think the reverse.
Trump’s rhetoric, ‘I’m sure we’ll be able to get along very well’ with Xi, rings hollow. Xi hasn’t spoken to him since before the inauguration, and Beijing’s foreign ministry vows not to ‘sit idly by’ as its rights are infringed. Trump’s repeated suggestion that Xi should call him reveals he’s started a fight he lacks the stomach to finish, having confused drama for strategy. Sun Tzu would scorn such bluster, favoring victory without battle. In this duel of global stakes, Trump, facing a resolute and disciplined adversary, has left him waiting for a call that Xi will never make. Instead, the President of the United States is left standing alone like a ronin shouting into the void.
China has already restricted Hollywood films and blacklisted 18 US companies. This isn’t a prelude to a deal; it’s prelude to decoupling. For China, the reset may even be a perverse relief – a chance to wean itself off the American market – sword of decoupling or not. Xi has told his people to embrace chi ku (“eat bitterness”) and endure the hardship ahead, a cultural edict that steels them for the long fight. The US, meanwhile, faces a reckoning. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims 75 countries are eager to negotiate, but his optimism feels like a samurai boasting mid-battle while his armor is pierced.
The political cost will be steep. Trump’s net favorability has cratered to -11, with 54% of Americans viewing him unfavorably. The YouGov poll shows 53% think the economy is worsening, up from 37% in January, and 51% expect higher inflation in six months—the highest share since 2022. Midterms loom like a storm cloud. The American electorate, battered by rising prices and economic uncertainty, will not forget. They’ll repay Trump’s recklessness in kind, likely handing Democrats a cudgel in 2026. And after his presidency? Legal consequences may await. Whispers of insider trading accusations, though nascent, could grow into a noose if Democrats play their cards right. Trump’s fate could rival Nixon’s—a disgraced exit, haunted by hubris.
For Pakistani-origin Americans, this is a moment of caution. Trump’s instability offers little for democracy and human rights in Pakistan. Groups like PakPac should not tether their nascent influence within America’s power corridors solely to the Republican Party, let alone Trump. His tariffs and trade wars are a distraction, not a platform, and his compulsion for ‘the deal’ hardly makes him a suitable partner for advancing democracy in Pakistan. The GOP may be a sinking ship by 2026, its hull breached by Trump’s recklessness, and his legal troubles could render him a pariah. Better to build bridges with Democrats, who are more likely to prioritize human rights, or to play both sides with a clear-eyed view of Trump’s decline.
The economy will worsen before it improves. Trump’s tariffs are not intelligent economics. They’re a gamble on American exceptionalism that ignores the interconnected reality of global trade. China won’t bend, and the American people will pay the price. In the art of economic war, Trump is no Kensei. He’s a ronin, swinging wildly, heedless of the blood on his own blade.
Miyamoto Musashi, a Kensei of markets and power, wields a pen as sharp as his blade.