The recent border tensions between Ukraine and Russia could put Pakistan in a national security dilemma, as Imran Khan wishes to stay away from conflicts that could place strains on Pakistan’s already covid-weary economy. However, it seems that Islamabad may have to decide on its position if Russia intends on liberating the Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv Republic, currently under Ukrainian occupation.
On the one hand, Pakistan enjoys excellent relations with Ukraine, particularly in the field of Defence and on the other hand, it seeks to rekindle a long last link with Russia. A secondary element linked to Ukraine is the Kharkiv Malyshev Tank Factory. This facility produces one of Pakistan’s Main Battle Tanks (MBT), the MBT T80-UD. Currently, Russian forces surround Ukraine in a horse-shoe arrangement with soldiers stationed in southern Belarus, the Eastern front of Ukraine, and Crimea.
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Understanding the matter better
Therefore, any capture of the Kharkiv Oblast territory (containing the Tank Factory) bordering Belarus and Russia will place the Factory under Russian control. This is bound to create problems for Pakistan’s repairability and maintenance of these tanks, as India will place pressure on Russia to tear up any agreements Ukraine made with Pakistan. Moreover, India will hope to create a gap in Pakistan’s supply chain, limiting these Tanks in a theatre of war, especially if India plans on any mischievous endeavour like it did in 2019.
Relations between Pakistan and the former-Soviet Republic have centered around the T-80UD tank, which Pakistan bought 320 of for $650m in the late 1990s, saving the Kharkiv Malyshev Tank Factory from bankruptcy. Relations have expanded since then, with Pakistan awarding upwards of US$1.6B in defense contracts to Ukraine, proving itself as a reliable client.
2021 has seen a lot of activity between Pakistan and Ukraine centred entirely around Defence purchases. In February 2021, Pakistan signed US$85.6m contracts to repair its T-80UD fleet of Tanks. This was significant as Ukraine produced the 6TD-1 Diesel engine for the T80 and 6TD-2 for Pakistan’s own MBT, the Al-Khalid battle Tank. COAS General Bajwa went to Ukraine in May on a high-level visit, meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine as well as holding individual meetings with the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, Minister for Strategic Industries, the Defence Minister as well as the Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Lt-Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi.
The meetings were centered around fostering long-term agreements and designed to deepen relations between the two countries with Transfer of Technology (ToT) and Joint Ventures (JVs) for future endeavors positively discussed. Then in June, Ukraine’s Ukrspetsexport won a contract to repair Pakistan’s Ilyushin II-78 aerial refueling aircraft used to support Pakistan’s Dassault Mirage III/Vs and Pakistan’s Jet Fighter, the JF-17 Thunder.
In August, Foreign Minister of Pakistan Shah Mehmood Qureshi held a telephonic conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart Mr. Dmytro Kuleba and stressed the need for greater cooperation and increased economic ties between the two countries. Finally, in September, the Pakistani Ambassador to Ukraine, Noel Israel Khokar, arranged a squash tournament in Kyiv to commemorate 30 years of bilateral relations with Ukraine, to increase cultural and sporting ties between the two countries.
Read more: Ukraine crisis: A path to the growing tension between the East and West
What is the future of Russia and Pakistan’s relations?
Unlike the pragmatic nature of relations with Ukraine, Russia’s flirtatious offerings of new beginnings with Pakistan have yet to translate beyond words. Russia faces challenges with shifting alliances as its biggest defence market, India, gravitates towards the United States. India does so with the same disillusion of gaining a strategic edge in the region, a mistake Pakistan made more than 60 years ago. The writing is on the wall for Russia, with India’s military entrenching itself further into the American camp by signing the LEMOA (2016), COMCASA (2018) and BECA (2018) agreements.
These have allowed India to enhance its interoperability with the United States through formalised means which allow the exchange of military communication through secure channels, access to American sensitive military hardware, and geospatial data used for civilian and military purposes.
Russia is still involved in defence exports to India with the recent delivery of the S-400 Missile Defence System. However, the balancing act which Russia is playing between India and Pakistan may leave it out in the cold. India’s continued integration into the American sphere will limit its relations with Russia due to America’s policy of maintaining a unilateral monopoly over arms procurement for “interoperability” amongst itself and its allies. Pakistan’s attempts to court Russian cooperation and investment aim to increase regional cooperation on multiple fronts as both countries face similar challenges in an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.
Pakistan, a major player in the MENA region, can aid Russia in creating in-roads in areas off-limit to it in the same way it has done for China. However, this support has to come at Pakistans benefit in the form of greater investment opportunity, transfer of technology and increased cooperation in science. Both countries need to catch up in terms of the lost potential during the Cold War, but India should not be a thorn of contention, limiting the height of this partnership.
Russia has shown some interest in the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline and the sale of four Russian Mi-35M Helicopter Gunships back in 2015. Nevertheless, more avenues need to be explored rather than testing the waters for the next chapter of Pak-Russia relations. A Russian guarantee must be put forth first before Pakistan extends any support for the Kremlin especially to offset the fall out from Ukraine and offer Pakistan a greater incentive to move into its camp.
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It would be in Pakistan’s best interests to support Russia on the diplomatic front as it seeks to shift away further from the United States, especially since Biden has yet to call Prime Minister Imran Khan since coming into office. The people of the Donestk, Luhansk and Kharkiv Republic in Ukraine are similar to those living in the Occupied territories of Jammu and Kashmir, as they also wish to secede from a country that is alien to them and join another who share their language, culture and ideology. Pakistan is ready and willing to back Russia in the 21st Century but for this, it requires part courage and part vision from Russia to shake off its own Cold War-era mentality when it comes to a willing and supportive Pakistan.
The writer is a Defence and Political Analyst with a Masters in International Relations from Deakin University, Australia. He specializes in Asia-Pacific Regional Dynamics and Conflict & Security studies. Sameed Basha can be contacted at basha@deakin.edu.au. The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.