In the most significant resurgence of Syria’s civil war since its unofficial cessation in 2020, thousands of people fled the central city of Homs overnight, fearing an impending rebel advance. The insurgents, led by the Islamist faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a lightning offensive southward, dealing consecutive blows to President Bashar al-Assad’s government and capturing major cities such as Aleppo and Hama.
Strategic Importance of Homs
Homs, a crucial crossroads city, connects Damascus to Assad’s coastal heartlands. Its fall could pave the way for rebel forces to target the capital, leaving the government vulnerable. The city, once called the “capital of the revolution” due to its prominent role in the early days of the 2011 uprising, is now witnessing mass displacement as residents flee towards western coastal regions, including Tartus and Latakia, where Assad’s government retains stronger control.
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HTS-Led Advance and Territorial Gains
HTS fighters, bolstered by allies, have captured the towns of Rastan and Talbiseh, advancing to within miles of Homs. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS’s leader, characterized the campaign as an effort to “build Syria” and facilitate the return of refugees from Lebanon and Europe. Analysts attribute HTS’s recent success to its professionalized forces, improved weaponry, and strategic diplomacy, which has included negotiations with rival groups and regime commanders.
The rebels’ rapid advance marks the swiftest battlefield movement since the civil war’s escalation 13 years ago, with HTS seizing Aleppo on November 27 and capturing Hama shortly thereafter. If Homs falls, it would leave the Assad regime in control of only two of Syria’s five largest cities.
Mass Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that tens of thousands of people, including members of Assad’s Alawite minority, have fled Homs and its surroundings. Khaled, a resident on the city’s outskirts, described roads illuminated by the headlights of fleeing vehicles. High demand for transportation has left many unable to evacuate. The United Nations warned that the renewed fighting has displaced approximately 280,000 people within a week, with numbers potentially rising to 1.5 million.
Forces Respond
In an effort to slow the rebel advance, Russian forces conducted overnight airstrikes that destroyed the Rustan bridge along the M5 highway, a critical route to Homs. The Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed joint Russian-Syrian attacks targeting rebel positions in northern Hama. Reinforcements have also been deployed to protect Homs, according to a Syrian army officer. Despite these efforts, the insurgents maintain momentum, with videos emerging of protesters toppling a statue of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father and predecessor, in Hama.
Iran Bolster Assad’s Forces
To counter the insurgent push, Hezbollah has sent elite units from Lebanon to Homs, while Iran pledged additional military advisors, drones, and missiles. These reinforcements arrive amidst Hezbollah’s own struggles with Israel, which recently targeted its infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The Syrian government’s forces are also reportedly battling Kurdish groups in eastern regions such as Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, straining resources further.
Israeli Airstrikes on Syrian-Lebanese Border
Adding another layer to the conflict, Israeli airstrikes hit the Arida and Jousiyeh border crossings between Syria and Lebanon on Friday. Israel claims the attacks targeted weapons-smuggling routes used by Hezbollah. These strikes complicate an already chaotic battlefield, with multiple regional and international actors vying for influence.
Broader Implications of Rebel Gains
The re-eruption of hostilities in Syria has revealed vulnerabilities in Assad’s regime, which had regained much of the country following Russian and Iranian intervention. However, shifting priorities among his allies—coupled with the rebels’ growing military capabilities—have enabled this new insurgency.
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HTS’s rapid territorial gains have further exacerbated Syria’s humanitarian crisis, underscoring the fragility of the 2020 ceasefire. With rebel forces closing in on Homs, the prospect of renewed large-scale conflict looms, threatening to destabilize the region further.