The US Election are just few weeks away, setting arena for Trump-Biden presidential contest. Both are strong nominees, so it would be premature to predict as to who would carry the day for White House. The 77 years old Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, a former vice president, has gathered huge public favor in return for his political waves to unify America and has promised US cooperation in International relations in his election campaigns while accusing President Donald Trump for US global isolation, its fragile economy and endangered democracy.
Nevertheless, envisaging Trump a weak Republican Candidate and underestimating him against Biden would just be out of our utopian thoughts. He, an incalculable nominee, knows well, the art of maneuvering the election. In 2017, he, unexpectedly, turned out to be the triumphant machinating and intriguing the election against Hillary being a popular and strongest democratic candidate, against the large presumptions by the people of the world. How diplomatically he manipulated, engineered and well schemed the election by winning the Russian surreptitious supports and doing camouflaged campaigns is beyond world’s imagination.
Who will benefit from Trump’s re-election?
Moreover, Trump’s endeavors to broker peace deals by successfully convincing and getting along two gulf states UAE and Bahrain to recognize Israel and further, the hardcore efforts to stage Intra-Afghan peace negotiations would certainly add to Trump’s victory against Biden. To add, lobbying by Israel to orchestrate Trump’s re-win in the presidential election can also not be overlooked since Israelis don’t want trump’s renouncement from the oval office for their mutual interests in the middle east. Above all, Trump testing positive for coronavirus amidst election that are going to take place on 3rd of November, would assuredly help him bag sympathy votes up to 23%, reports revealed.
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However, the likes and favors at the international level for Trump’s conquest against Biden are fewer than they appear; therefore, subjugating and surmounting Joe Biden would incontrovertibly be a hard nut to crack for President Donald Trump. Besides that, Trump’s number of hostile acts inside and outside of US have also caused an unprecedented decline in his popularity which may lead to his downfall in presidential election.
Trump’s growing unpopularity in the last four years
During Trump’s four years tenure as President, he emerged to be a racist having fanned racism, widening the already existing gulf between Black African Americans and White Americans. For Instance, George Floyd’s death after being knelt on his neck by a police officer for wrongly accusing him of using counterfeit $20 bill to buy cigarettes, led to nationwide protests, claiming at least 20 life casualties by the brutal resistance by Police during demonstrations. A similar incident just recently occurred in Atlanta when a police officer shot and killed Rayshard Brooks which led thousands of black and white people to the streets against the incumbent racist and an anarchist Trump, injuring his reputation across US that will certainly hurt his reelection as well.
Second, imposition of travel ban by Trump on various countries particularly Muslim countries, including Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yamen, Nigeria and Kyrgyzstan, clearly exposes his hatred for Muslims and expresses his propensity towards Xenophobia and Islamophobia in US that mainly aims at halting the influx of Muslim refugees who are fleeing persecution, oppression, massacre and violence in their own countries. Approximately 86 times Trump has displayed and promoted Islamophobia at multiple international forums, adding to Muslims’ abhorrence to his racial, prejudiced and arbitrary acts.
Third, during his tenure, Trump did not even refrain from threatening the expatriation of all blacks to Africa, the place of their origin. Moreover, few African American congresswomen named Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ayanna Pressley were also targeted by Trump to leave US, sowing deep seeds of hate and hatred in the hearts of millions of black Americans against him which would unquestionably impede his progress in upcoming US election.
Fourth, severe detentions for Mexican refugees at bordering areas and obnoxious and inhumane treatment towards them is all buying people’s abomination for Trump that will hinder his reelection as president of US for second term.
Trump’s trade war with China
On the other hand, after Trump came to power, he first picked up a trade war with China by adopting the policy of protectionism. Trump imposed tariffs on several Chinese products which resulted in China’s tariffs on US products. With such hostile economic moves, US economy contracted by over 30% which is more than three times greater than 10% fall in 1958. Consequently, the US unemployment rate has jumped to 14.7% which is the worst since the depression era. Thus, it will indubitably hamper Trump’s reelection.
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Likewise, Trump withdrawal from US-Iran nuclear deal named JCPA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) signed on 14 July 2015 between Iran and P5+1 against the acquiescence of all his European Allies, hammering Iran with economic sanctions is not being vastly appreciated in political circles which may affect his wrestle against Biden.
Moreover, the growing US-India bonhomie, with sole object to contain China’s OBOR infrastructural mega project and adoptive measures to also encounter China in Indo Pacific will have far flung implications on US presidential elections. Because, Trump’s presence in Asian politics for its hegemonic and supremacist designs is not being admitted; thus, getting no favor to retain the seat for second term.
Also, the impeachment case against Donald trump, however, he remained triumphant, but it left no stone unturned to portray the dismay image of him; It can also have unintended consequences in his canvassing to retain his position in Washington. The democrat Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of house of representatives, an arch-foe of Trump, spared no efforts to exercise Trump’s impeachment. Besides, he is the only president, who was accused of a large number of harassment cases; all of which will badly affect his political position, election campaigns as well as the results.
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Finally, for Pakistan, Trump administration’s four years track record have never been pleasant in moving with Pakistan cheek by jowl.
Contrary to the Pakistan’s countless sacrifices during the war on terror, Trump regime continued to blame it for harboring terrorists. Trump administration also halted training for Pakistani armed forces and military assistance to remain suspended as well. In addition, US tilt towards India against Pakistan and no support for Kashmir cause has filled general masses with detestation against Trump in Pakistan. Therefore, Trump swap with Biden is what being anticipated and favored hugely by public in Pakistan.
Given all above-illustrated factors, it can be perceived that chances for Trump’s success are not so high and people from the Muslim world also don’t want him to stay in power. However, we cannot completely miscalculate Trump’s sphere of influence yet in some specific areas including India, Israel, and the European Union that might bolster him during election campaigns. Albeit, it would not be a piece of cake for either of the candidates to get White House Keys. Evidently, there would be a tough competition and scrimmage between Biden and Trump, and It is just before the time to prognosticate the success of one of the two.
Waseem Shabbir is a Gujranwala based political analyst and a freelance columnist. He can be reached at waseemshabbir78@gmail.com