Donald Trump and Narendra Modi are set to meet on February 12-13, 2025, in what is expected to be a challenging discussion. Trump, known for his direct approach, has been handing out lists of demands to world leaders rather than engaging in diplomatic pleasantries. Following his tough negotiations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Modi is also expected to face a similar approach as Trump pushes his “America First” agenda.
During the meeting, Trump is likely to raise five key issues: illegal immigration, H-1B visas, tariffs on American goods, India’s relations with Russia and Iran, and the fentanyl chemical problem.
Illegal Immigration: A Growing Concern
Illegal immigration is a major concern for Trump and his supporters, as the U.S. currently has around 11 million unauthorized immigrants. While the focus is often on Mexican and Latin American migrants, Indians now make up the third-largest group of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. With over 725,000 Indians living illegally in the country, many from Punjab and Gujarat, Trump is expected to pressure Modi to take back deported Indians and implement measures to curb further illegal migration. In 2023 alone, over 14,000 Indians were arrested at the U.S.-Canada border attempting to enter illegally.
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H-1B Visas: The Future of Indian Tech Workers
The H-1B visa program, which allows U.S. companies to hire foreign professionals in specialized fields, has primarily benefited Indian nationals. However, Trump and his supporters believe these workers take jobs from Americans by accepting lower wages. Given his history of imposing restrictions on the H-1B program, there is concern that he may do so again. Modi is expected to argue that Indian tech professionals contribute significantly to the U.S. economy, but securing favorable terms on this issue may be difficult amid rising anti-immigration sentiment.
Trump has long criticized India’s high tariffs on imported goods, calling the country the “tariff king.” With an average tariff rate of 17.6%, significantly above the global average, India has been a target of U.S. trade complaints. Trump previously pressured India to reduce its 100% tariff on Harley-Davidson motorcycles to 50%, though he still deemed it excessive. Given the $46 billion U.S.-India trade deficit in 2024, Trump is expected to push Modi to lower tariffs on American products such as agricultural goods, steel, and technology equipment.
India’s Relations with Russia and Iran: A Diplomatic Challenge
Another contentious issue is India’s relations with Russia and Iran. India maintains strong trade and defense ties with Russia, purchasing military equipment and crude oil, while also engaging with Iran in developing the Chabahar Port, which is crucial for its trade interests. With U.S. sanctions imposed on both nations, Trump is likely to pressure Modi to reduce economic ties. However, India views these relationships as essential for its energy security and strategic positioning. Modi will need to navigate this discussion carefully to maintain India’s foreign policy independence while addressing U.S. concerns.
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The fentanyl crisis has been a significant issue in the U.S., and while China has been the primary source of the drug, reports suggest that India also plays a role in supplying precursor chemicals used in its production. Trump may demand stricter regulations and oversight from India to prevent these chemicals from reaching illegal drug manufacturers.
India’s Leverage in Negotiations
Despite Trump’s tough stance, India has leverage in these negotiations. The U.S. relies on India for skilled technology professionals, strategic partnerships to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region, and defense cooperation, as India is a major buyer of U.S. military equipment. By making concessions on minor issues, Modi may be able to deflect pressure on more critical concerns such as trade policies and foreign relations. His challenge will be to secure favorable terms while protecting India’s economic and strategic interests.
The Trump-Modi meeting will be a crucial moment for U.S.-India relations. Trump is expected to take a firm stance on key issues, while Modi will need to strike a balance between cooperation and safeguarding India’s national interests. The outcome of this meeting will play a significant role in shaping the future of economic and diplomatic ties between the two nations.