Syed Haider Raza Mehdi |
My late father, Col S.G. Mehdi M.C, would oft say. “Understanding a country’s history, especially events in the recent past and a Map is all one needs to understand their national interests, strategies, and tactics.The USA has no intentions of leaving Afghanistan ever unless it’s like the last soldier clinging onto a helicopter lifting off from the rooftop of the USA embassy in Saigon. This is a bold assessment based on what drives their national interests.
Picture this. In the last 30 years the USA, both Democrat and Republican administrations, have waged 13 wars, intervened in over 100 countries, spent over $14 Trillion, of this $1 Trillion alone in Afghanistan and caused 3 million deaths. 2 million in Afghanistan and 1 million in Iraq. Their own casualties. Barely 7000 of their own. A ratio of 1 to 400. Does this look like a country which will leave Afghanistan?
Why does the USA do this? Why do they wage war all over the world? To answer this in detail is a subject for another time, but for the time being, sufficed to say that global economic domination is the overriding national interest driven by its most dominant sector, the defense establishment. Annually, the USA spends more money on military spending than next 10 countries combined. Their current 2018 defense budget is $652 billion. The combined military budgets of the next 10 countries ($660 Billion).
Here are the current defense spending bills for the top 11 countries.
1. USA – $652 Billion ($885 billion if veterans, civil defense, and military aid included).
2. China – $215 Billion.
3. Russia – $69 Billion
4. Saudi Arabia $64 Billion.
5. India – $56 Billion.
6. France – $56 Billion.
7. UK – $48 Billion.
8. Japan – $46 Billion.
9. Germany – $41 Billion.
10. South Korea – $37 Billion.
11. Italy – $28 Billion
For context, Pakistan’s defense budget for 2017 is about $9 Billion.
You can blow up the whole country but you can’t blow up their ideologies and passion to defend themselves and so it is with the Afghans. And this the USA understands.
The total current annual global military expenditure is nearly $1.7 trillion ($1,7000,000,000,000) and the USA has a whopping 50% share of global defense expenditure. America has been in an uninterrupted cycle of war for nearly 80 years since the attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941. Today, inarguably, it is the biggest, the most powerful, and the most violent war mongering nation on the planet. And this is the country Pakistan faces as an adversary in Afghanistan and the Region.
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But and it’s a happy but. They have suffered defeats in Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Because even if you’re the world’s mightiest military machine on ground, air, and sea with the most sophisticated munitions, you still cannot defeat a determined population defending their homelands. You can blow up the whole country but you can’t blow up their ideologies and passion to defend themselves and so it is with the Afghans. And this the USA understands.
So then why will the USA not work towards a peaceful resolution to Afghanistan’s seemingly intractable problem, knowing that they cannot be defeated into submission?
Why should Trump say that the US objective in Afghanistan is not “nation building again but killing terrorists”? Knowing that in 16 years of war and with a 130,000 US troops they could not do it.The answer – China’s race towards Global economic leadership.
According to Steve Bannon, the former Chief White House Strategist, a role specially created for him and even today considered by many Washington insiders to be Trump’s closest political advisor, China is the biggest threat to USA’ world domination.He believes China, if not checked by the USA, will become in the next 10 to 15 years the world’s pre-eminent and dominant economic power, ahead of the USA. And this is what the USA fears most!
And OBOR’s three major flagship projects are the $46 billion CPEC, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a 3,000km high-speed railway connecting China and Singapore, and gas pipelines across central Asia.
Also militarily, while USA defense expenditures have remained fairly constant in the $600 billion to $650 billion range in the last 10 years, with increases above $700 Billion from 2009 to 2012, China more than doubled its military budget from about $100 Billion to $215 billion today. And if China continues to increase its military budget at the same rate, not only will they gallop ahead of the USA economically, but be very close to matching the US military might.So stopping China’s economic outreach is the overriding USA strategic objective and thereby its military prowess as well.
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The question is how will the USA attempt to do that and the answer lies in OBOR – China’s One Belt, One Road program, Its most ambitious economic initiative to date. An estimated spend of $5 Trillion across 64 countries in Asia, Middle East, Africa and Europe, is what keeps the USA awake at night. And OBOR’s three major flagship projects are the $46 billion CPEC, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, a 3,000km high-speed railway connecting China and Singapore, and gas pipelines across central Asia.
USA military presence in Afghanistan provides it the perfect staging ground and opportunity to attempt to disrupt, scuttle and eventually destroy CPEC and thereby significantly dent China’s OBOR strategy. It’s really as simple as that.
The US is not there to kill the Taliban as said the Trumpeter, but will be happy to, wherever and whenever they can find them. And simultaneously trying to negotiate mineral mining rights for the estimated $3 Trillion in precious metals and minerals in Afghanistan.
They have no desire to turn Afghanistan into a peaceful country at peace with its neighbors because then Afghanistan will become an essential extension of OBOR and CPEC.They have no desire to talk peace with the Taliban and to form an inclusive government of all warring groups because then it will mean a China and Pakistan friendly Afghanistan.
They know that no “safe havens” exist in Pakistan anymore, given that nearly 50% of Afghanistan is under Taliban control and that, today, they have not been able to find a single Taliban training camp inside Pakistan. A challenge the Pakistan Army Chief, Gen. Bajwa threw to Gen. Nicholson and all visiting US military and civilian leaders who trooped in recently, to find such a camp, using all their sophisticated wizardry and drones.
They are not here to ensure that terrorists do not attack America because that is now near nigh impossible. They know that the Taliban have agreed to all conditions to participate in Afghan reconciliation, including accepting the Ghani government, laying down arms, participating in free and fair elections, except one proviso. The USA must leave Afghanistan. And this they cannot.
They know that Pakistan has played an extremely constructive and positive role in bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, but that is not their intent. They know that Pakistan and its Army are no longer playing a “double game” if one can call looking after one’s own interest, that. And admittedly this part of our strategy and policy was handled extremely ham handedly in the past. But then hindsight is always 20/20.
But for the USA to acknowledge that the Taliban want peace. To acknowledge that Pakistan also wants a peaceful Afghanistan. To acknowledge that all countries in the region, China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran, except India, want a stable Afghanistan is totally contrary to their goals of defeating China.
To acknowledge full Taliban participation in a peaceful reconciliation of Afghanistan means that a future Afghan government will look east towards Pakistan and China and not west towards the USA.
To accept this means giving China a free hand in the Region and its march towards global domination.To accept it means that they can no longer feed the US and Global public opinion with the narrative that Pakistan is fermenting trouble in Afghanistan and hence the need for US troops to keep Afghanistan “stable and safe”.
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To acknowledge full Taliban participation in a peaceful reconciliation of Afghanistan means that a future Afghan government will look east towards Pakistan and China and not west towards the USA. Hence whenever there are serious moves forward to bring the Taliban to the table their leader is bumped off.And it serves President Ghani of Afghanistan to echo the USA narrative of a Pakistan attempting to destabilize Afghanistan, so they can remain in power and not admit the abject failures to reconcile the warring elements
It is in this context that we must evaluate and analyze Trumpistan as a USA strategy, laden with horrifying consequences to defeat China. Pakistan is thus in their cross hairs because of CPEC. The tragedy is that the USA will not succeed in this attempt but in trying to achieve their goals they will wreak havoc on Pakistan.
And this where they are currently out Trumped! How do they get back Pakistan into their sphere and out of China’s grasp? How do they scuttle the CPEC project? And lurking as a close second is their other strategic objective which is totally Pakistan centric. How do they de-nuclearize Pakistan, seen as a potential and catastrophic threat to them, India and Israel? So good old Pakistan has a handful to deal with and is likely in for a period of serious turmoil and instability.
It is then we understand the prime reason behind the very close the USA and India partnership with common and aligned objectives. Defeat China and de-nuclearize Pakistan.It is then easy to see why Baluchistan is in turmoil, with India using its Afghan and Iran ingress to attack CPEC. Iran’s geopolitical interests are today closely aligned to China, Pakistan, Russia and for a peaceful Afghanistan. Iran must realize that allowing India any further ingress into Iran will only be counter productive. Their interests lie in de-linking their relationship with India and reaching out to Pakistan and becoming close friends as they had been in the past. But the sectarian regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been a major factor in stopping this reconciliation. But now with the Saudi influence in Pakistan fading, the time is opportune for Pakistan and Iran to reconcile and adopt a common strategy to counter the USA threat.
The USA actively supported by India and with help from the Afghan government, will take full advantage of Pakistan’s current political turmoil to instigate even greater instability and violence.
In my view, Saudi Arabia as we know it now is more a question of when and not if. As are the other Gulf states, especially the UAE. As is now fairly common knowledge that the UAE has been actively attempting to sabotage the Gwadar port because it directly impacts their trade lifeline and free ports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
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The USA actively supported by India and with help from the Afghan government, will take full advantage of Pakistan’s current political turmoil to instigate even greater instability and violence. One can expect them to attack our sectarian, religious, social, ethnic and, provincial fault lines to create unrest and armed conflict.
They will try and bring Pakistan to its knees, economically and then ask for their pound of flesh.They will unleash Quislings like Husain Haqqani as the poster insider of Pakistan establishment and use his invective and poison to feed US public opinion. It is now easy to connect the dots and understand why a two-bit hustler, albeit an intelligent two-bit hustler like Husain Haqqani says and writes what he does. He should be ignored and shunned and cast away in the garbage heap of history as another who sold his soul!They will also unleash other similar moles, hidden deep inside our political, civil and military organizations and our media to create turmoil.
India will up the ante. Europe will not fall for the American narrative. Turkey as well. So lots in our favor except our own desire to commit suicide. Lots of moving parts.
We are our own worst enemies.I don’t think the US will militarily attack Pakistan. Some drone attacks, certainly. But will do everything to destabilize us politically and destroy us economically. Our best bet is a strong government and a regional pact between China, Pakistan, Russia, and Iran. I think China has too much at stake to let us drift, despite our own best efforts to destroy ourselves. I think China may be able to prevail upon Ghani that the USA bear hug will be their death.
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India will up the ante. Europe will not fall for the American narrative. Turkey as well. So lots in our favor except our own desire to commit suicide. Lots of moving parts.And I can go as far as to hazard that they will attempt to create circumstances of such turmoil and massive civil unrest with the hope that the Army will take over and be hoping, as in the past with Zia and Musharraf before to buy off the new strongman!
This is a ploy and a trap our Army and Gen. Bajwa must not fall for and into. They will use you and Pakistan and discard you once the night is over. They will destroy the country and de-nuclearize us and leave us at the mercy of the dogs of India!
Beware the Greeks bearing gifts!
Haider Mehdi is the current Convenor of The Strategy Study Group, founded by the late Col. S. G. Mehdi M. C, former Group Commander of Pakistan Army’s Special Services Group (SSG). Haider is a former Pakistan Army officer, corporate leader, management consultant, business trainer, and serial entrepreneur.The views expressed here are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect GVS editorial policy.