As Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency looms, one of the most pressing questions is how his leadership would shape America’s foreign policy, especially in relation to China. Known for his “America First” strategy, Trump has long focused on curbing China’s rise on the global stage. His policies have implications not only for the U.S. economy but also for global trade and stability.
Market Reactions and Economic Decoupling
Following Trump’s election win, the U.S. dollar surged, stocks hit record highs, and Wall Street celebrated the promise of lower taxes and stronger corporate profits. However, Chinese markets saw a steep decline as fears of renewed tariffs loomed. Trump’s approach to U.S.-China relations has always been confrontational, centered around economic pressure.
At the core of his policy is a belief that China’s prosperity has come at America’s expense. Trump views the trade imbalance with China as evidence of economic exploitation and is vocal about imposing tariffs, describing them as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” He believes tariffs will boost American industries and create domestic jobs.
Trump’s stance on China is shaped by hawkish figures within his party who see China as a strategic threat. Former officials like Mike Pompeo and John Bolton argue that China’s expanding influence challenges U.S. dominance and warn of a “Thucydides Trap,” where rising and established powers are prone to conflict. They advocate for curbing China’s influence before it reaches parity with U.S. power, especially concerning Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Full-Scale Economic Decoupling
Under Biden, the rhetoric around U.S.-China relations softened slightly to focus on “de-risking.” In contrast, Trump’s push for economic decoupling would likely return with full force. He has floated ideas of steep tariffs on Chinese imports, with levies as high as 60%, to drive American industries home. High tariffs and restrictions on sectors like technology and energy could reach historic levels, mirroring isolationist economic policies of the 1930s.
China’s Countermoves and Preparedness
China is now more prepared to counter U.S. economic pressure. Over the past year, China has faced tariffs on its electric vehicles and has responded with its own tariffs or complaints at the WTO. Additionally, it has diversified key agricultural imports away from the U.S., hurting American farmers. China also holds strategic resources like rare earth elements, giving it leverage in any renewed trade conflict.
This time, global markets and U.S. allies may respond more decisively. European officials, for example, are preparing lists of American goods to target if Trump’s trade policies escalate. The European Union and China have also strengthened trade ties, creating alliances that could counteract Trump’s economic nationalism.
Trump’s tariffs would likely raise costs for American consumers and businesses. Economists agree that tariffs drive up prices, potentially costing U.S. households thousands annually. Industries reliant on imported materials might also face higher production costs, reducing competitiveness.
The Future of U.S.-China Relations: A Tense Outlook
If Trump resumes office, his hardline stance will likely further strain U.S.-China relations. His administration’s focus on China as an economic adversary may include sanctions and trade barriers targeting Chinese technology, energy, and infrastructure sectors, raising the risk of escalating tensions.
With China’s growing economic power and strategic resources, however, Trump’s approach may face limitations. The global economy’s interconnectedness means unilateral aggression could lead to unintended consequences, including a backlash from global markets and strengthened alliances between U.S. trade partners and China.
As the world watches closely, a new phase of the U.S.-China rivalry may emerge, with both nations prepared for a drawn-out economic standoff. Whether Trump’s policies will reinforce America’s standing or lead to global disruption remains to be seen.