Trump has nearly delivered on his promise to end the war in Ukraine, which has resulted in significant casualties and financial costs. Putin appears to have won what he calls a “Special Military Operation,” solidifying his power and exposing the vulnerabilities of the Western system. 2025 may mark the end of unipolarity and the rise of multipolarity. Former Biden administration advisor Alexander Vindman described the situation as a “complete capitulation.”
Trump-Putin Talks and Peace Efforts
Trump characterized his call with Putin as “lengthy and highly productive” and suggested that the war is nearing its conclusion, with a potential meeting in Saudi Arabia. He expressed optimism about achieving a resolution soon. Meanwhile, Putin emphasized Russia’s goal of a long-term peace based on mutual respect.
Insights from Trump’s administration suggest that Ukraine will remain sovereign but diminished, with Russian forces holding 20% of its territory. There is little expectation of territorial return, and NATO membership is off the table. Pete Hegseth called Ukraine’s hopes of reclaiming lost land “unrealistic.”
One unresolved issue is the $500 billion in mineral deposits Zelensky has used to entice Trump for continued support. Given Trump’s business acumen, he is likely to seek a deal for those resources.
Impact on U.S. Foreign Policy
From the Biden administration’s perspective, this outcome is disastrous. The U.S. establishment may attempt to portray the war’s conclusion as a defeat to undermine Trump. The Wall Street Journal noted that Putin has achieved a long-sought goal: direct talks with the U.S.
However, Trump’s strategy aligns with “America First” interests. JD Vance, the U.S. Vice President, remarked that it is not in Putin’s interest to be the “little brother” in an alliance with China, hinting at Trump’s broader geopolitical maneuvers.
The Economic Fallout of the War
Three years into the war, its impact has been profound. Western hegemony has weakened, and European economies, particularly Germany’s, have suffered from high energy costs and inflation. Germany’s economic downturn is its worst post-war slump, exacerbated by the Nord Stream pipeline’s destruction, which economist Jeffrey Sachs called “an act of international terrorism.”
Read more:Trump’s Tariff War: Will China Bow or Hit Back Harder?
Ukraine’s Heavy Losses
Ukraine has suffered extensive damage, with over 500,000 deaths and infrastructure losses exceeding $160 billion. Russian-speaking regions are now under Moscow’s control, and the West’s promises to Ukraine have proved hollow.
Sanctions against Russia failed to cripple its economy but instead undermined global trust in the Western financial system, encouraging the Global South to seek alternatives. The sanctions contributed to BRICS’ rise, the push for a BRICS currency, and the MBridge system as a SWIFT alternative.
Trump’s Strategy: A Shift Away from Russia-China Ties
Trump does not view ending the war as a defeat but as a strategic necessity. He believes the war was avoidable if the U.S. had not misled Ukraine about NATO membership. Instead of prolonging the conflict, Trump seeks to reintegrate Russia into the Western fold, potentially through the G7.
Trump’s primary focus is countering China’s influence. Critics argue that U.S. engagement in Ukraine distracted from this greater challenge. Since 2022, Russia and China have deepened ties in trade, energy, and defense. Bilateral trade reached $244 billion in 2024, and Russia shifted most transactions to non-dollar currencies.
Read more: Trump to host Netanyahu for crucial Gaza ceasefire talks
To counter this, Trump seeks to lure Russia away from China by offering reintegration into Western economic and diplomatic circles. Whether this strategy succeeds remains to be seen.