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Thursday, March 27, 2025

Turkey Protests Shake Erdogan’s Rule as Opposition Fights for Survival

The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has sparked Turkey’s biggest protests in a decade, with demonstrators fearing the country’s shift toward autocracy. Erdoğan’s government faces mounting opposition amid an economic crisis, while international reactions remain muted.

Turkey is witnessing its largest wave of protests in over a decade, following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. What began as anger over a politically charged corruption case has transformed into a nationwide outcry against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s tightening grip on power. The unrest signals growing frustration with Turkey’s economic crisis, media repression, and the ruling party’s maneuvering to sideline the opposition.

More than 1,400 protesters have been arrested, including journalists covering the demonstrations. The crackdown on media coverage and dissent echoes past authoritarian tactics, but the sheer scale of public resistance suggests a shifting political landscape. As young people and opposition supporters flood the streets, a broader challenge to Erdoğan’s rule is emerging.

A Calculated Political Move? The Timing of Imamoglu’s Arrest

The arrest of İmamoğlu comes just as his party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), was preparing to nominate him as its presidential candidate. The timing is no coincidence. The day before his detention, Istanbul University annulled his diploma—an apparent attempt to disqualify him from running. With Turkey’s next election scheduled for 2028, suspicions are growing that Erdoğan may seek to extend his rule by altering the constitution or calling early elections.

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This political maneuvering has historical parallels. Erdoğan himself was once jailed as Istanbul’s mayor before rising to national power. However, the political landscape has changed dramatically since then. Unlike in the past, Erdoğan now controls much of the judiciary, media, and security forces, making his grip on power more entrenched than ever. But public outrage at his latest move suggests that discontent is reaching a boiling point.

A Struggling Economy Adds Fuel to the Fire

Turkey’s economic crisis has exacerbated public anger. The lira’s decline and soaring inflation have hit ordinary citizens hard, and the government has spent up to $25 billion to stabilize the currency. Many see the economic downturn as a self-inflicted crisis caused by Erdoğan’s policies. İmamoğlu’s broad appeal—including among conservative voters—has made him a formidable challenger, and his arrest is widely seen as an attempt to neutralize that threat before it can fully materialize.

In response to the crackdown, the CHP has called for economic boycotts of pro-government businesses and media outlets. However, the government’s firm control over financial institutions and state resources makes it difficult for the opposition to leverage economic pressure effectively.

The International Response: Will the West Intervene?

Despite the scale of the protests, international reaction has been muted. The timing of İmamoğlu’s arrest coincides with shifting global priorities: Europe is focused on the war in Ukraine, and the U.S. is navigating its own geopolitical realignments. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent praise of Erdoğan as a “good leader” further complicates the international response.

European leaders have historically criticized Erdoğan’s authoritarian turn, but their reliance on Turkey for security cooperation has led to caution. However, Western governments still hold economic and diplomatic leverage if they choose to use it. The question remains whether they will intervene or continue prioritizing strategic alliances over democratic values.

A Turning Point or Another Crushed Movement?

The CHP has indicated a shift from daily street protests to other forms of resistance, such as legal battles and economic actions. However, the movement has seen an unprecedented coalition of formal opposition figures and younger, more radical protesters who operate outside traditional political structures. Whether these factions can sustain momentum or fall victim to internal divisions remains to be seen.

Erdoğan has survived past challenges, including the 2013 Gezi Park protests and the 2016 coup attempt. His government has labeled the current protests as “terrorism,” signaling a likely continuation of the crackdown. Yet, the scale of unrest suggests a deeper political transformation may be underway.

For many in Turkey, this is a defining moment: a last stand for democracy before the country slides further into autocracy. Whether the opposition can translate this unrest into real political change—or if Erdoğan will once again consolidate power—will shape Turkey’s future for years to come.