Last month changes everything.
It’s been a roller coaster. November marked one of the most decisive shifts for global financial markets in recent years, with a bevy of asset classes — from bank stocks, emerging-market bonds to hard commodities — staging sharp price swings in the space of a mere three weeks. Investors reckon the ascent of Donald Trump presages a regime shift for the global economy, marked by trade protectionism, a stronger U.S. inflation outlook, and a higher U.S. fiscal deficit. The anchors of global asset repricing: a stronger dollar, an increase in U.S. growth expectations, fears of a more protectionist Trump-led administration, and a steeper U.S. yield curve which brought the premium for borrowing at the long-end, relative to short-end obligations, back to positive territory.
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